richard baris twitter

RED TSUNAMI: Pollster Rich Baris Says The House Is LOST For Dems, Senate Is Dicier

well just a day before the 2022 midterm,election over 40 million people have,already cast their votes keeping Pace,with the record level of voter turnout,for the 2019 midterm elections,Republicans appear to be in the lead,with the polls indicating that the GOP,will flip the house where they only need,to net five seats and I bet they do a,lot better than that they could take,over the Senate as well which is,currently deadlocked at 50 50.,key Battleground States like Ohio,Pennsylvania Georgia and Arizona will,most likely determine the fate of,congress with voters focused mostly on,inflation and the overall state of the,economy joining us now to discuss is,data journalist and director of Big Data,poll Rich Barris welcome rich,thanks for having me it's good to be,here coming yes it's great to have you,so uh crystal ball us uh what's gonna,happen tomorrow,yeah you know I think the Senate,obviously though is a little bit more,questionable but I think it's a foregone,conclusion uh that the Republican party,will take the house uh the margin you,know I I think that it's a solid if you,know people low is 15 20 seats I think,that's on the low end I really do it's a,first term incumbent midterm and,although some of the polling does make,it look a little bit more competitive we,have seen this movie before and uh at,the end of the day some of the the,indicators that are really predictive,presidential approval rating the,direction of the country dissatisfaction,in general and the issue said,um you know historically tells us that,it's probably going to be a worse night,for house Democrats than than most,people uh want to admit at this point uh,maybe not but that's historically the,most likely scenario in the Senate there,are just a lot of uh a lot of states,where Democrats are on defense in some,of the areas where uh Republicans have,to hold some of our and others have,shown that it has gotten brighter for,Republicans as we got closer to this,election so again uh you know I'm,thinking that when I'm thinking we have,it as the most likely is around it's 52,seats it's possible if there is a you,know red tsunami whatever you want to,call it it could go higher but you know,elections they're funny like that they,all will be incumbents in the Senate,that we thought were done dead in the,water and they'll hold on and there'll,be others that we thought were,incredibly vulnerable and and uh you,know likely to be defeated and and or,the reverse you know that uh we thought,they would hold on but they don't and,they're defeated that's the nature of,midterm elections yeah it's a very very,interesting picture I I think I've,predicted that Nevada will go Republican,I think Pennsylvania will go Republican,uh then then you have Arizona where it's,a little dicier you have Georgia where,probably I suspect a runoff could come,into play and then I don't really know,what that looks like and then some,people are talking about New Hampshire,as well you were you were speaking of,New Hampshire before we started rolling,that's actually a race I think we've,covered Less on this show so why don't,you give us your quick take on that one,and so the way we poll as well but in,our modeling our our model does uh with,some of the polls uh we we do reduce the,weight for accuracy and the most,accurate poll in in New Hampshire is,saying and some college and they do have,the Republican Don Paul back up a point,uh but another poll that was released,just this morning had a sign up by a,point so we had it actually as leaning,Republicans or slightly it was slightly,Republican but now because of that it,probably will move back to coin toss the,fundamentals favorite bold act uh I mean,Hassan has a a major problem that Gene,chihin never had she was always,underwater on the question if you ask,voters in New Hampshire do you think,that she deserves re-election or not uh,Maggie Hassan always was a negative on,that question whereas Jean Shaheen who,had a tight race against Scott Brown uh,you know she basically uh you know it's,not overwhelming but she was always,positive maybe plus four plus five on,that question so in this environment,it's entirely possible that boldac uh,squeaks it out absolutely it's just you,know there are some of these states that,really are pure coin tosses in Nevada uh,that's another one I know a lot of,people make hay out of early voting,look I always tell people not to read,the early vote Tea Leaves we simply,don't know how those people voted the,early lead for Democrats in the early,vote is not as big as it has been in the,last couple election cycles and it,really comes down uh we've seen this,year after year in Nevada it really,comes down to that margin among,Independence uh Donald Trump won them by,about 13 or 14 points in 2016 but,Democrats hadn't had a turnout advantage,and it came up a little shy the last,Republican to win Statewide Dean Heller,he won them by uh 20 points 53-33 that,is what our polling and other polling is,suggesting lack sa

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