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Brad debates lib economist Noah Smith on Dems’ ‘inflation’ planhey everybody Brad here with a guest

Brad Polumbo

Updated on Jan 29,2023

Brad debates lib economist Noah Smith on Dems’ ‘inflation’ plan

hey everybody Brad here with a guest on the show today to have a debate slash conversation about ,President Biden and the Democrats new legislation the inflation reduction act with me is Noah Smith ,he is a blogger and former economics professor Center left policy wonk who you might know from ,Twitter used to be a Bloomberg columnist all sorts of things all over the Internet Noah thanks so ,much for coming on okay thanks for having me on yeah look I really appreciate it because I have ,reached out to a lot of lefts of Center people over the years to try to have conversations slash ,debates and I'm far from like the most hostile or aggressive or patrolly person on the right ,and I've gotten like I'd count on one hand the number of people that are actually down to do it ,so just on that alone I appreciate you well thank you I'll debate anyone you know because I I try to ,get Ben Shapiro to debate me and he promised to and then and then backed out it was going to be ,really fun because I was going to talk super fast like he does and it would be like a about what ,um I don't even remember that was like two years ago so then it was during uh during the pandemic ,well I wish he had done it uh that's a real shame ,um but so folks we're talking about the inflation reduction act what I would say is an aspirational ,title uh that the Democrats have passed it looks set to become law hasn't quite yet uh but just a ,quick overview of what's in the bill to set the ground for this conversation the nonpartisan ,committee for a responsible federal budget says that it has about 800 and I'm sorry 485 billion in ,new spending 385 billion in green energy subsidies and tax credits a hundred billion in health care ,subsidies and a few other things then it's got about 790 billion in projected reduced spending ,slash increased Revenue 320 billion from reduced Health Care spending via the repeal of a trump-era ,rebate Rule and Medicare drug price controls and 315 billion from a 15 minimum tax on American ,corporations 125 billion in Project did increase tax revenue from funding the IRS and increasing ,enforcement so Noah just feel free to let me know if there's anything in the bill that I didn't ,highlight there specifically we can get into all the weeds but more importantly are you willing ,to admit as some people in the kind of media are starting to that this is really a climate ,bill it's not an inflation Bill really that they kind of slap that name on it for political reasons ,yes and no I mean climate is is obviously a big part of it but uh note that it has a bunch of ,fossil fuel uh stuff in it as well so it's not really I think that climate activists are very ,happy about the green energy subsidies but I think they're kind of overestimating the degree to which ,it's like a pure climate bill this is not like a green New Deal this is not what they had hoped for ,um it's the best we're gonna get in that sense but so it's it's in addition to a climate bill it's ,two other things number one it's a it's a cheap Energy bill it's basically we had high gas prices ,expensive energy and um and so it's basically saying let's make energy cheap and then uh in ,addition to that it's a um it's sort of a cost uh cost of living reduction bill because have you ,seen that um that graph the the most important economic graph in the world that the American ,Enterprise Institute puts out it's like showing how expensive things and the subsidized things ,yeah that's right and so I think that this is this is looking at that kind of thing and saying holy ,crap we've got to do something about this and it it is you know it's a start at addressing ,the kind of the the cost of living you know when I was when I was a kid the 90s things in America ,were pretty cheap gasoline was cheap uh housing was cheap uh Healthcare wasn't cheap but then ,um it was you know tuition wasn't cheap either but they were less less horribly ,expensive than now and so I think that um uh basically we've got to do something about that ,and I think this starts to to get at that so I think it's cost of living reduction ,um uh cheap energy which I guess is you know that's that's cost of living because we could ,always use cheaper energy and then climate yeah so I I I see what you're saying and I think we ,can debate the provisions of this bill no Siri I'm not talking to you uh we can debate the provisions ,of this bill but I think that they are rather divorced from the macroeconomic inflation that ,we are seeing right the Consumer Price Index year over year what 20 in 2021 I think the ,average household was something like five thousand dollars to maintain their same standard of living ,this is every voter's number one issue but you've got all these uh different you know everyone from ,the nonpartisan Congressional budget office to the Wharton School of Business has concluded that the ,i

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noah smith twitter catalogs

Is Silicon Valley "Over?" With Noah Smith of Bloomberg
Is income inequality actually decreasing? | ft. Articles from Noah Smith & Matthew Yglesias
Will Smith - “Emancipation” | The Daily Show
Marxism – From The Capital to the Critique of Capitalism -- with Noah Smith and Robert Nemeth
Chapo Trap House - Noah Smith Ukraine (606)
Is Jason Hickel Wrong Again? | Noah Smith vs. Jason Hickel
Is AI coming for your job? ft. Article by Noah Smith

Is Silicon Valley "Over?" With Noah Smith of Bloomberg

uh let's first you want to see rabbits,though,sure yeah consider ourselves recording,show me the rabbits,how many do you have now two,and how because i've seen you i like at,first i kind of thought i didn't follow,the threat exactly i thought you were,joke tweeting about rabbits but so how,long have you been a rabbit parent now,a private parent i've um i got this,rabbit,in uh um 2017,uh and then i got my second rabbit in,late 2018,because she was getting bored and she,needed a companion so i got her a,companion,and do you let loose in the house or,they stay in that sort of,crate thing or what oh no no they,they're they're loose in the house they,they have a little fence uh which both,prevents them from stewing hay all over,the apartment,and gives them a feeling of like their,little territory,but they don't really need it um they,they usually just sleep under my bed to,be honest,they sleep in the bed they don't want to,rabbits won't at least my rabbits will,never they won't go up on a bed like,they'll sometimes,jump on the bed briefly but they'll be,like what is this soft thing and then,just,just hop down well uh,don't don't tell my daughter because uh,even though we got her,a puppy she always wants a cat now and,then a horse and so rabbit would,obviously be next on the chain um all,right so,let's start off with this because,listeners know,that i keep going back and forth with,this idea of,uh remote work and is it the new normal,and post-pandemic times i i just did a a,story yesterday about salesforce saying,they're gonna go to mostly remote work,which is ironic considering they built,that giant skyscraper,that they're like i wonder if they,regret that now but so,how are you thinking about this stuff do,you,do you think that we're gonna see a,meaningful change in,where people are working or is this sort,of fetish,well so um i think we're going to see a,shift toward remote work but it's,tempered by a couple things number one,if people work remotely three days out,of the week and then go into the office,two,they still have to live near the office,and so the residential patterns don't,change,maybe you could have more flexible,office arrangements or downsize your,office because you have fewer people in,there at any time,and so commercial real estate developers,uh could still get hit,but in terms of hollowing out cities,it's probably not going to happen,people have to be completely remote and,they're not just going to have to be,completely remote,they're going to also have to do things,like job search and,networking completely remote so there's,this whole bundle,of things that you can do with physical,proximity and we're gonna have to,in order to sort of unbundle the city as,it were,we're gonna have to be able to do all,those things remote and i think that's a,taller order than people realize,which doesn't mean it's impossible um,there the other factor,is um the fact that cities are fun to,live in,and if people you know work at a company,that's based in new york and they move,from new york to,um you know taipei and now they're in,taipei,instead of new york and then people from,taipei moved to new york,you've still got the same number of,workers in these superstar cities they,just live in different ones,so for this to really have an effect on,sort of,um evening out this this sort of uh,very lopsided distribution of of um,employment in cities you know if we're,gonna get tech workers,uh to be to be less concentrated in like,san francisco for example,um it's gonna require that they move to,sort of what we call second-tier cities,kind of a,not the nicest expression but but we're,gonna have to get tech workers living in,cleveland and we're gonna have to get,tech workers,living in um you know young's town or,places like that to really,to have their local spending revitalize,those places,um i think we're we're gonna see a,movement towards cities like,dallas houston austin atlanta,is going to be a big one,those aren't what i'd call second-tier,cities but they're sort of,sub-superstars,i think we're going to see towns like uh,like national,become popular you wrote that like you,thought like the whole,the whole sun belt is pretty much a,decent candidate,the sun belt is a decent candidate um,and that's always been true because the,sun belt really sprawls,and once people are passed they're sort,of um,you know meeting people years and ready,to raise,kids i think that people including,millennials,have a strong desire to move to the,suburbs you see that in all the data,the the suburban dream is not dead i,think people want more walkability to,their suburbs i think people want some,more transit in their suburbs i think,people want,more density more restaurant choice and,things like that they want suburbs to be,a little more like cities,but i don't think that we're going to,see a lot of people,you know raising kids in in highly,densified downtowns of places,like dallas texas that's not going to,happen,and so i think we'll see some

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Is income inequality actually decreasing? | ft. Articles from Noah Smith & Matthew Yglesias

all right income inequality Noah Smith,Matthew Iglesias one says inequality,might be going down the other says,incumbent equality has been falling for,a while now,income inequality Talk of the Town,oftentimes from members of the left of,center community for good reason,incoming equality empirically isn't good,for a number of reasons uh and so,insofar as you can limit income,inequality to a reasonable degree with,taxing and spending and economic,structures that's probably a good thing,and so let's uh get a survey it looks,like of where income inequality is in,terms of how high it is how low it is,the structures of it,and what's perhaps been causing it to go,down according to Noah Smith so let's uh,and Matthew Iglesias so let's start off,with Noah Smith,one name you don't hear aloud these days,is Thomas piketti in 2013 the French,Economist burst into the popular,Consciousness with the publication of,capital in the 21st century the basic,thesis was that useless was that unless,extraordinary forces wore a massive,government action intervened capitalism,would naturally tend towards greater and,greater inequality that thesis is,summarized by the famous and pithy,formula are greater than G meaning that,if the rate of return on capital is,greater than the growth rate of the,economy as a whole inequality,mechanically increases in Kitty's,telling only the extraordinary,combination of the Great Depression the,New Deal World War II and Rapid post-war,growth managed to stay to save us from a,social collapse due to spiraling,inequality in the early 20th century and,now we're back in the danger zone here's,the famous graph with some labels I,added the top one percent share of,income depression and redistribution,here the first Gilded Age here War here,income inequality goes down down down,rapid economic growth and the second,Gilded Age where income inequality,appears to be going up quite a bit in,fact particularly going up in the U.S as,the U.S is the yellow line here,and this is looks like it ends in 2010 I,wonder if that's for a reason,the Kennedy's Book was perfectly time to,coincide with an explosion of leftist,political sentiment and popular unrest,in an age where everyone needs data to,back up their arguments the Kitty's,inequality numbers were something solid,and tangible that people could point to,and argue that capitalism was naturally,unstable and that the US was in a moment,of deep crisis progressives hammered,home the message of a second Gilded Age,in and day out day in and day out in,fact they are still hammering at home,Robert Reich former labor secretary,under the Clinton Administration,well-known Progressive today we're in,the second Gilded Age just like the,first when America's wealth was in the,hands of a few a conspicuous consumption,existed alongside homelessness and,hunger monopolies destroyed competition,money corrupted politics and government,slided sided with railroad Barons over,the workers,inside the econ profession meanwhile the,book sparked its share of fiery debates,the most dramatic moment was at the 2015,American economic Associated meeting,when paquetty suggested that his critics,were bought and paid for by the rich in,uh the more stayed forms of papers and,blogs economists found any number of,reasons to take issue with piketti he,ignored the costs of capital,depreciation he ignored the fact that,much of the income from Capital was,actually income from Land his theory,relied on some questionable assumptions,about savings rates Etc some even argued,that piketti data piketti's data itself,was unreliable,but essentially no one questioned that,inequality had risen a lot in the U.S,even if there was disagreement on the,exact amount,as long as income and wealth kept,getting less and less equitably,distributed,in the U.S academic criticisms of,Kitty's data in theory would remain well,academic although if you stalworth,Defenders of laissez-faire capitalism,insisted that inequality wasn't a,problem these arguments fell very flat,most people don't think that a society,can experience perpetually Rising,inequality without running into some,sort of major social problems so for a,number of years many of us thought very,hard about ways that inequality could be,curbed before it got completely out of,hand I was in that camp that wanted to,uplift the incomes of society's poor,members via cash benefits and faster,economic growth but anyway then an,interesting thing happened inequality,started going down a little bit the,plateau and slight decline of U.S,inequality first let's talk about wealth,inequality which tends to get a lot of,press in the U.S this is the type of,inequality that the new socialist,movement as well as left-leaning,economists like Gabriel zuckman have,tended to focus on the most as you may,have noticed stocks crashed this year,into a lesser extent house prices fell,too a stock crash will tend to hurt the,rich a lot more than it hurts middle,class and poor people since the rich,collectively

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Will Smith - “Emancipation” | The Daily Show

sir how are you I am so good I flew 30,hours to be here with you,in uh Bhutan what are you doing uh the,Nat Geo show uh so you're traveling,around travel around the world uh just,like finding the secrets of life and are,you finding them uh no not yet not yet,yeah because we've seen you every I mean,you you've been everywhere in the world,like you say Bhutan you traveled the,Middle East in Africa and were you going,next South Pole uh South Pole yeah,that's a real thing yes but why why yeah,like what are you hoping to discover,there so where does black people don't,like the cold,why are you there will no so the the,show is I don't know if I'm supposed to,be announcing it yet but the show's,called pole to pole okay so we're going,from the South Pole to to the North Pole,and all the stops along the way and uh,we're we are uh see it's called other,people's wisdom so we're seeking the The,Wiz them there are people who live at,the South Pole they're researchers so,we're going there we're going to talk to,them right all the scientists basically,they say like the world's knowledge is,stored yes essentially right so you got,me you're making me cry,no yeah,when I think about all that cool,oh no I'm surprised you were awake the,guy the guy who discovered the South,Pole is named Will Smith for real yep,that's true,you just said that so I don't even know,if you're lying right now,that's so convincing yeah no it's true,it's true some,emancipation I just I just watched it it,is a I mean it's so hard to describe,movies like this because you people who,see it in the clip yeah but you play one,of the most famous Unknown People to,surprising and you know what I mean,absolutely from America's history a man,whose picture went around the world that,basically showed many people who didn't,know innately how brutal slavery was,let's let's talk about this first of all,emancipation is not the kind of film we,would expect to see you in immediately,as Will Smith so why this project why,get into the story and why this story in,particular you know when I when I read,this script man it's like you know we we,you've probably seen the image,um it's uh a black man and it says you,know his his back and his arm and he,said so it's a pretty pretty famous I,think we have that image I think it's,one of the famous yeah so right yeah so,it's a it's uh it's that that image and,uh first seeing that image was one of,the things that really uh got me you,know excited to explore this because you,you see the image but you don't know who,he is you don't know what the story is,and then as I started to do the research,and,you know it's a a American slavery was,you know one of the most brutal aspects,of human history right you know it was,it was,it was something that was was so,incomprehensible you know it was just so,it was it's hard to understand the the,the level of human cruelty,um and the the screenplay was,spectacular and uh Antoine Fuqua just he,you know he he did his thing on this man,and you know gripping the whole way,through I'll tell you that much it's,it's scary it is it is gripping it is,not it's not glamorizing because because,it is the story of how you know the,union is moving and people start hearing,whispers of Lincoln has declared that,you know slavery is abolished he's freed,the slaves yeah but then you see how,many people haven't received that news,and you see how that news doesn't change,everybody's lives overnight yeah so the,Emancipation was uh January 1st right,and slaves weren't free until June 19th,so the the the the period of,emancipation yeah 1865 yeah so January,1st slaves were free but the South,refused to allow the slaves to be free,so the the enslaved people started,trying to run to get to Lincoln's Army,uh and in Baton Rouge is where Lincoln's,Army was from from this this place in,Louisiana so it's about that period,where the slaves were free but they,weren't being freed so it's a it's a you,know it is a beautiful beautiful movie,um and you know so my daughter asked me,she's like Daddy do we really need,another slave movie when I was thinking,about it and I was like I said baby I,promise you I wouldn't make a Slave,movie this is a freedom movie you know,oh wow,yeah,yeah it's it is interesting that you say,that yeah it is interesting that you say,that because the story you know one of,my favorite lines in the movie is when,um you know I think it's one one of the,he's leading one of the battalions and,he talks to your character right he's,like a general Commando and he he says,to your character he says I Was Born,Free he says we're allowed to own houses,and your character says to him if you're,if someone must allow you to do it are,you really free right you know and you,know this film was really what's really,interesting about it is,It Centers on faith you know and the,power of Faith you know to be able to,endure anything you know and that this,character,it's just what what he had to,endure and what he had to survive,um only God

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Marxism – From The Capital to the Critique of Capitalism -- with Noah Smith and Robert Nemeth

is is Marxism Lindy or is marxism's,optimism Lindy would be the third,question,um okay so is Marxism Lindy I don't even,know if Lindy's a thing,um I mean like I don't if you told me,this airplane is Lindy I would like to,request a different airplane,if you tell me I would like to sell you,this car for a high price because this,car is windy I'll be like I would like a,new car please,um,you know if you're like I would you know,I I think we should have a king because,monarchy is Lindy you know like in in,1910 I would be like no I would not like,a king now,that is not Lindy,um uh I would not like a Lindy uh thing,so I don't,um,yeah like memes memes stick around,spandrels stick around Stephen J Gould,spandrels stick around without you know,with no evolutionary reason to uh,you know so I don't know but then what,but by now I've forgotten the previous,question,why uh why is Marxism contemporary,Marxism so popular in education at the,Arts like it doesn't is it unparalleled,the second one is what is the actual,ideological opposite of Marxism is it,accelerationism right I remember I,remember that one right and the third,there's no yeah right there's no,ideological opposite of Marxism,ideologies don't have opposites like,what's the opposite of Christianity I,don't know but um is it Islam is it,atheism is it like you know Satanism I,don't know,um,but uh there isn't these ideologies,don't have opposites they're not like a,poll right there's just like different,things pointing in different directions,and sometimes they bump up against each,other and work at Cross purposes but,then as to why it's so important um I,think there there is one reason,um the United States after World War II,created a university system,uh in which,um,you know that we modeled we modeled,everything off of the physical sciences,we modeled everything off of how physics,chemistry and biology work and uh,economics works like this you have the,you have peer review you have journals,you have you know like you have to,publish certain numbers of Journal,papers blah blah blah citations counts,are the important things we made this,system it works very well for some,things for the Humanities it just does,not this does not work this is a shitty,model,uh this is not a good way of determining,who has created good Humanity stuff but,yet we still use it because we use this,one size fits all sort of thing to,determine and and it it became crucial,to the to the academic system but at the,same time it you know because because it,became the way we do Academia it became,the way that we allocate intellectual,respect because those are very closely,connected in American society,universities determine who gets the,intellectual respect and to some I mean,you know to some degree elsewhere as,well but then this University hierarchy,was very important and so,um earlier I talked about how Marxism,was a way for people in fields like,economics to get around the existing,intellectual hierarchy and find a back,door to intellectual respect but also,for Fields it's a way that you can ape,the scientism of science it was a way,you can create scientism,to to ape the conventions and the,stylings of science itself of Natural,Science physical science like you um,you know you have like these you can see,this in the humanities definitely not,restricted to Marxism,but basically instead of,um in in you know instead of my,experiment came out right it was just,like my textual interpretation is,correct,you know or like you it's it's argument,from Authority explain replacing,argument from experiment those obviously,aren't the same thing they shouldn't be,treated the same and are we messed up by,treating Humanities this way and the,humanities people are desperate that,they'll lose Prestige if they lose the,physics imitation,format right if they stop publishing and,citing and doing all the things that,physicists do or that you know chemists,do or whatever your humanity is finding,right people think you're just a you're,just a word cell as as my friend roon,would say you're just uh you know you're,just this this idiot who just talks and,talks about you're dumb you're low IQ,you no one should listen to you just you,know do the math shut up and learn to,code and that's the fear among,Humanities people,um and the idea is that unless they ape,the conventions of scientism you know,unless they just ape the the physics,format then they'll they'll lose,intellectual Prestige and respect for,working on these things and so instead I,think that a lot of these um arguments,from Authority you see this in,philosophy like you know instead of,thinking like you know what is a good,life how should I live my life you,instead think what does Kant say you,know you have to you have to go through,Kant who the is Kant I read that,when I was 13 I was was like this is,dumb you just took 500 words to say,something that could have been said in,an equally dumb wrong way in 10 words,shut up Kant but he was dead so I,couldn't tell

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Chapo Trap House - Noah Smith Ukraine (606)

all right well to uh close out today's,episode i thought we'd uh maybe go back,to the ukraine,uh check in on uh on someone who's uh i,he's he's an all-star when it comes to,foreign policy thinking uh economic,thinking i'm talking about uh no opinion,no opinion uh he has a sub stack now and,let's just check in on him he was okay,um i'm choosing him because he was the,one who was saying on on twitter that,like um this is world war three like,this is exactly like you know like this,is hitler 2.0 and then people were like,well you know he was like you know i,want to contribute any way i can and,then someone was like you could you know,yeah join the army join the army like,you go through it apparently they are,taking volunteers now and this is,perfect because everyone has a chance to,put up or shut up if they were and you,know and then his attitude his answer,was like i have various health problems,but i could i could learn to fly a drone,i'm very good with engineering and like,you know i could be an attache to an,officer,i could chill i could go i could vibe i,could uh i could stay in the corner so,that i wasn't at an active hindrance i,think anyone could be in action to an,officer if they really want that does,really sound like not a very difficult,gig yeah i could follow anyone around if,my mind was really set on it,if i was committed to the cause i could,absolutely just stand one foot step,behind someone while they sat in a,meeting if you need someone to spill,seven up zero on a console,i mean i i definitely do think that he,would not be terribly useful uh on the,front lines,like at a certain point you know just,having the gun is is not that helpful if,he doesn't know how to use it well he's,you know he's he's waging the war of,ideas and here on substance he writes,this is a moment of clarity the russian,invasion of ukraine should wake us up um,would you okay check this out this essay,begins with a quote you're never gonna,guess who it's from uh churchill close,george orwell oh goddammit all,sleeping the deep sleep of england from,which i sometimes fear that we shall,never wake till we are jerked out of it,by the roar of bombs george orwell's,homage to catalonia okay so it begins a,few events create as much moral clarity,as the unprovoked brutal invasion of a,peaceful nation by a militaristic empire,if you're not if you don't like them i,mean what does he think about when,palestinians try to resist a ,invasion what is he is is that a,moment of total moral clarity or is it,just more complicated stuff that you,can't really uh pick good guys bad guys,out of i says uh it's the backdrop of,the driving uh it's the backdrop or the,driving conflict of so many of our,stories star wars casablanca lord of the,rings the sound of music yes precisely,because it creates heroes and villains,so easily and automatically on one side,the haughty iron-fisted dictator with,his legions of destruction on the other,side children hiding underground while,their parents make a desperate stand to,protect their homeland is he talking,about ukraine or lord of the rings right,now,it's all basically the same thing i,think that's the pitch here yeah is that,like you don't actually have to consider,any of the real world,uh implications or shadings just pick,your favorite uh television or or,uh,literary fantasy world and just live,there,i am more captivated by a certain,norwegian musician's insistence that the,pope is the real life sauron and jewish,the story of russia's invasion of,ukraine fits that archetype perfectly,ukraine wasn't threatening russia in any,way ukraine never fired a shot into,their neighbor even though that neighbor,had already carved off pieces of their,country in 2004 and subjected them to a,grinding eight-year war,uh putin simply declared that ukraine is,historically part of russia and sent in,his troops soon russian missiles were,blasting practically every city in,ukraine russian tanks were rolling into,ukrainian cities and ukrainian children,were hiding in bomb shelters,ukraine's military despite their greater,numbers,is desperately overmatched with,practically no long-range weapons,capable of silencing russia's barrage of,rocket artillery cruise missiles and,ballistic missiles but they're still,fighting hard holding out on some fronts,and winning a few battles even as,russians push deeper into the country,and shell the capital ferociously the,ukrainian resistance will probably,forever be symbolized by the defenders,of snake island who when ordered to,surrender,by a russian worship replied russian,warship go yourself and died to the,last no they did not the audio of this,exchange is here okay,enjoy that fake thing that didn't happen,it turns out the people who derisively,predicted that ukraine would simply fold,understood very little about that,country or its people,unlike me yeah,meanwhile morale seems to not be,particularly high on the russian side,the leader of a russian tactical unit,that surrendered to the ukraini

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Is Jason Hickel Wrong Again? | Noah Smith vs. Jason Hickel

so for those of you that don't know,Jason hickle Anthropologist he,uh he he moonlights as an economist now,and then uh and I have done a video on,him and and his work,um if I can find it let's see Jason,hickle,Kano boy actually may search unequal,exchange because I think this is,actually,not mistaken at least when I searched it,yeah this maybe it's just me but I feel,like if you search Jason unequal,exchange I test this out on other,computers I think this is actually one,of the more popular videos to come up,but I did this video about Jason hickle,how he's wrong about unequal exchange,and I thought it was a a pretty good,video personally if I if I don't toot my,own horn I guess,um and I've had Jason Nichols work has,come up a lot his two big issues are,unequal exchange and also uh green,growth he's like a very he doesn't,believe in green growth green growth is,the idea that you can grow the economy,but also shrink emissions uh and uh he's,a degrother which means that you know,the only way for us to really solve,climate change is to shrink the economy,and,he's a big advocate for that,um and like I said unequal exchange he's,also very skeptical I guess of uh I saw,a paper of him that came out recently,which I'm sure was just a just a great,paper,um and it was uh the idea that,capitalism hadn't actually solved,poverty so I guess he talks about that a,lot as well and a while ago uh Noah,Smith a sort of Pop econ well-known,writer,um he got in a in an in an article back,and forth between uh himself and Jason,hickle if I'm not mistaken so January 29,2019 this is March of 2019 then we've,got August of 2019 and then we've got,April of 2021 which is a little bit,after this,um but it seems like we,uh had a uh hickle Smith hickle and then,perhaps Smith came back with the the,final nail,um in the end so I wanted to read this I,thought it would be interesting uh and,kind of give some uh analysis I guess on,both of these or on all on these sort of,series of articles I thought it'd be fun,so,let's do it let's start with this one so,the dispute starts out with an article,from Jason hickle titled Bill Gates says,poverty is it decreasing he could not be,more wrong an infographic endorsed by,the Davos set presents the story of,coerced Global proletarianization,um as a neoliberal Triumph okay well,let's talk about that I guess,last week as world leaders and business,Elites arrived in Davos the world,economic Forum Bill Gates tweeted an,infographic to his 46 million to,followers showing that,um,uh showing that the world has been,getting better and better this is one of,my favorite infographics he wrote A lot,of people underestimate just how much,life has improved over the past two,centuries of the six graphs developed by,Max Roser of our world in data the first,has attracted the most attention by far,it shows the proportion of people living,in poverty as declined from 94 in 1820,to only 10 percent today the claim is,simple and compelling and it's not just,Gates who's grabbed onto it these,figures have been trotted out in the,past year by everyone from Stephen,Pinker to Nick Kristoff and much of the,rest of the Davos set to argue that the,global extension of free market,capitalism has been great for everyone,Pinker and Gates have gone even further,saying we shouldn't complain about,Rising inequality when the very forces,that deliver such image wealth to the,richest are also eradicating poverty,before our very eyes is a powerful,narrative and completely wrong so,my assumption is going to be that of,these graphs he's going to basically,entirely hone in on this extreme poverty,one I guess that's what the article is,about and my assumption,is that he's going to criticize this,poverty rate as it's probably just a,number of people living above a certain,amount sort of arbitrary line a day,um and then he's going to compare,um it's Jason hickle so I'm guessing,he's going to say that if we took out,China actually Global poverty as a,proportion of the people in poverty if,we use a quote unquote real poverty line,metric hasn't actually gone down that,much it's actually been the,anti-capitalist sort of socialist China,that's lifted all of these people out of,poverty so let's talk about that that's,my prediction maybe I'm totally wrong,there are a number of problems with this,graph though first of all real data on,poverty has only been collected since,1981. anything before that is extremely,sketchy and to go as far back as 1820 is,meaningless Roser draws on a data set,that has never been intended to describe,poverty but rather inequality in the,distribution of world of GDP and that,for only a limited range of countries,there is no actual data uh no actual,research to bolster the claim about,long-term poverty it's not science and,social media so in part he's writing,party's wrong I mean obviously when,we're starting to go back um you know,before actual statistical agencies we're,collecting data the data gets a little,bit more wonky although I'

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Is AI coming for your job? ft. Article by Noah Smith

uh for those that didn't see I talked to,an individual named phonomics and uh,synth who I believe I've talked to twice,uh once on,uh The Crucible that's right with uh,Andrew Wilson and once on this channel,and I believe uh in all three of those,conversations I believe we did talk,about the rise of AI and I think the,position from synth and from phonomics,is basically that the rise of AI and,automation essentially necessitates a,socialist takeover of the economy,uh to which in the extreme case I think,you would have to have Collective,ownership over at least the AI,technology so that basically the the one,billionaire who owns the Omega AI,technology doesn't just completely take,over the world with it but uh who knows,I think that a lot of the discussions on,like hyper Advanced AI are much more,philosophical than they are grounded in,any sort of reality,um however I did see a uh a news story,about this generative Ai and how it was,a potential Game Changer and it wasn't,from Noah Smith I think I saw it on,maybe like Bloomberg or something like,that I know Noah says the Bloomberg,columnist but I don't think he wrote the,article that I'm referring to uh and so,I did see that he wrote this article and,I thought it would be interesting uh to,read about so generative AI autocomplete,for everything a joint blog post by Noah,and roon on the future of work in the,age of a i on the no opinion sub stack,this blog post is co-authored by Noah,and roon roon is a researcher at a,prominent AI company and he also posts,humorously on Twitter because this is a,joint post we sometimes refer to one of,us in the third person,let's get started,if you talk to people about the,potential of artificial intelligence,almost everybody brings up the same,thing the fear of replacement for most,people this manifests as a dread,certainty that AI will ultimately make,their skills obsolete for those who,actually work in AI or on AI it usually,manifests as a feeling of guilt guilt,over creation of the machines that put,their fellow humans out of a job and,guilt over an imagined future where,they're the only ones who are gainfully,employed,in recent months oh in recent,months those uneasy feelings have,intensified as investment and innovation,in generative AI have exploded a,relatively new innovation in machine,learning called diffusion models brought,to text brought text to image generation,to maturity a wave of AI art,applications like mid-journey and stable,diffusion have made a huge Splash and,stability AI has raised 101 million,dollars meanwhile Jasper a company that,uses AI to generate written content,raised 125 million in an era when much,of the tech industry seems to be down in,the dumps AI is experiencing a golden,age and this has a lot of people worried,to put it bluntly we think of the fear,and the guilt we think the fear and,guilt are probably mostly unwarranted no,one knows of course but we suspect that,AI is far more likely to complement and,Empower human workers than to impoverish,them or displace them onto the welfare,roles this doesn't mean we're,starry-eyed uh,pangolossians we realize that this,optimistic perspective is a tough cell,and even if our version Vision comes,true there will certainly be some people,who lose out but what we've seen so far,about how generative AI Works suggests,that it'll largely behave like the,productivity enhancing labor-saving,tools of past waves of innovation,AI does not take over jobs it takes over,tasks if AI causes mass unemployment,among the general populace it will be,the first time in history that any,technology has ever done that industrial,Machinery computer controlled Machine,Tools software applications and,Industrial robots all all caused panics,about human obsolescence and nothing of,the kind ever came to pass pretty much,everyone who wants a job still has a job,has no opinion as Noah has written a,wave of recent evidence shows that the,adoption of industrial robots and,automation technology is in general,associated with an increase in,unemployment at the company and Industry,level,American workers need lots and lots of,robots I guess that's another post that,you can read,that's not to say it couldn't happen of,course sometimes technology does really,does totally new and unprecedented,things as when the Industrial Revolution,suddenly allowed humans to escape a,malthusian poverty for the first time,but it's important to realize exactly,why the innovation of the past didn't,result in the kind of mass obsolescence,that people feared at the time the,reasons was that instead of replacing,people entirely those Technologies,simply replace some of the tasks they,did if like Noah's ancestors you were a,metal worker in the 1700s a large part,of your job consisted of handing tools,to manually bash metal into specific,shapes two centuries later after the,Advent of Machine Tools metal workers,spent much of their time directing,machines to do the same to do the,bashing it's a different kind of work,bu

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