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nate silver twitter

Nate Silver and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Twitter Tweeti want to highlight this pro

Paranoid Factoid

Updated on Jan 13,2023

Nate Silver and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Twitter Tweet

i want to highlight this problematic,twitter thread by nate silver,what he's trying to say is very,confusing except one has led to a,general conclusion that media as a whole,leans left,which is a typical partisan republican,talking point but nate portrays himself,as unbiased and above the partisan fray,are these tweets really unbiased let's,examine,you know we're living in a society,you're on your own,the great society,or to tell you the is i am,we live in a society,to start with who is nate silver joining,us now for his take on the race for the,white house nate silver he's a former,sports statistician turned political,analyst for the last 15 years or so he's,run 538.com,a site dedicated to political polling,he's very well known and regularly,brought on television news as a,political and polling analyst,now let's get back to those tweets,in the first tweet he says that,conservatives have a large u.s audience,while progressives do not which is true,insofar as the audience for fox news is,vastly larger than the audience for,msnbc but then nate goes on to say that,the media in general is left and cites a,vanity fair op-ed which agrees on the,size difference between conservatives,and progressive audiences but says,nothing about whether average media,leans left in fact if you check through,the op-ed and read it it doesn't say,anything at all like that the op-ed is,by dan pfeiffer former obama,communications director and now podcast,creator in a sea of boring podcasts,regardless phifer argues that dems,should be building louder media,megaphones to promote their policy,agenda just like how fox news works but,he certainly doesn't lament a media,landscape that leans left in fact he,doesn't touch upon that issue at all but,i think it's reasonable to assume he'd,argue the exact opposite of fast okay so,maybe nate relies on his second tweet to,back up that media landscape lien's left,claim but if so the sourcing for nate's,second tweet is equally problematic,here he relies on screenshots of two,graphs one of which is from pew and the,other is not clearly sourced but if you,dig into the graphs themselves they,don't really say what he says they say,either,let's dig into those two graphs,both of these are built on questionnaire,polls you call a bunch of people ask,them their opinions on various things,and conduct an analysis from the results,the first graph shows that self-reported,democrats tend to use a wider range of,social media outlets than republicans,who use far fewer we're talking sites,like instagram twitter reddit ticktock,youtube etc horizontally the graph shows,the percentage of u.s adults who report,having used a list of social media sites,in the columns below,along each column is the percentage of,u.s adults who say they are either,republican-leaning or democratic-leaning,but confusingly the right-wing is,presented on the left side of the graph,while the left-wing is on the right side,which you know okay bad graph design,this shows the reported differential,between left versus right in each of the,site's user base that is the number of,people who self report is left leaning,versus right leaning and a corrected,random sample,we'll just trust they got the sampling,right however to read it the smaller the,differential the more widely it's used,by both the left and right the bigger,the differential the more partisan they,interpret the audience to be get it,this is where nate gets his claim that,facebook is neutral,because according to this poll result,the small differential says that,facebook attracts both left and right,leaning users about equally whereas,sites like instagram twitter and,whatsapp have very high spreads which,lean left or democratic presumably he,refers to these as left-leaning sites,because of that differential spread in,the poll let's think about that,interpretation,first it relies on the presumption that,the user base in these sites are,homogeneous that is there's only one,soapbox for the entire audience and a,huge competition to gain access to it,which everyone listens to equally,but that's not the case,each of these sites has built-in echo,chambers where partisans go to meet each,other whether that's twitter with its,large differential and a user base that,leans left or facebook where the,differential between left and right is,small and according to nate is therefore,neutral,but in both cases though twitter may,have proportionally fewer right-leaning,users compared to facebook,both self-segment audiences by interests,and political values with little,intersectionality between them,when lefties talk they talk to lefties,and when righties talk they talk to,righties,this is that partisan social media,bubble,so relative audience size across social,media sites doesn't really matter if,everyone is just talking with their own,anyway,if you think about it,how does this graph actually argue for,facebook having political neutrality in,contrast to twitter leaning left it's a,terrible oversimplification

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America's Top Statistician Nate Silver Runs Epic Bluff in $10,000 Poker Tournament
Nate Silver SPIRALS On Twitter
#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
Nate Silver Just Released His Senate Forecast. Here's Why I Think It's Terrible
538's Nate Silver: 'It's hard to find a clear path for Democrats' to win Senate
What Happened To Nate Silver?
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Plays Epic Poker Hand vs Jason Somerville

America's Top Statistician Nate Silver Runs Epic Bluff in $10,000 Poker Tournament

and managed to come back and win against,like a massive it wasn't like five bakes,to 20 bigs it was really,disproportionate super deep I think he,won like 14 in a row or something,something absurd I mean it was,we stopped counting how many SDS away,from the norm that the that sort of run,was as we see a limp pot,Spades Hendrix Hendrix has flopped to,the flush,maybe might be able to get one street of,value versus silver albeit,it's got to be a pretty small bet,even then the deuce three it's not great,out of position can't improve,It's gotta be a small bet like this one,one big blind you can sacrifice one big,blind,he's got more chips you can be asked for,more than one big blind and you know,what,I almost prefer this line from Silver,to a flat I'm sure that sounds foolish,but,where do you want to go you want to,flatten then face another barrel and,fold unless you hit the deuce or the,three and even then if you hit the three,of Spades where you you know what I mean,obviously we know that card's busy but,it's just kind of a No Man's Land sort,of proposition and obviously Hendricks,all too happy to see,silver salivating putting more out there,though the pair on the board is an,unwelcome arrival not a terrible card,for silver to be honest,you might actually continue betting here,thinking it's less likely Adam's gonna,have a jack,and there is another bet Adam just,let him keep firing,yeah but now obviously if there's some,some jack eight out there,Hendrix is Gonna Wanna be mindful of it,definitely being a little more cautious,of course with the paired board,but still definitely calling feeling,good about it could be some deuce deuce,out there as well silver loves his,Deuces will it come in here,King of Spades yeah now forward will,flush on board as,silver has bloated this thing to 2.55,million and he's going to jam and what a,an uncomfortable spot this is suddenly,as played we tend to want to remove the,Ace of Spades from Silver's range,whether it was suited which we block if,we're Hendricks or whether it was,Standalone which would likely want to,deposit more chips pre-flop so what is,he representing we blocked the Spades,the check raise on the Flop could be an,equity denial proposition not looking to,allow a Force pay to come off with a,hand like a set of Deuces or jacks up,from time to time out of silver here's,the issue with Adam and think and what,he's thinking about is that he only,beats a bluff he loses like you know,yeah there's really nothing else he has,the queen of Queen of Spades is the Ten,of Spades playing like this,is the nine Estates playing like this,it's a paired board and you know you,think those hands would be a little bit,more conservative,here we are you beat a stone cold Bluff,as disgusting as it is,there's a chance did you stop it for the,count or you counted earlier,oh and he puts it into the muck,what a remarkable run out that was for,silver the pair on the turn the fourth,Spade,and he manages to get it through Savage,Savage Bluff by silver oh my God,oh my goodness,I think that's what Adam was thinking is,Nate,is Nate the kind of player to put his,tournament life at risk All In

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Nate Silver SPIRALS On Twitter

yesterday on the show we talked about,chicago's teacher union uh,approving via vote uh a return to uh,remote learning not going back in person,we're seeing now actually today in san,francisco a group of teachers are,participating in a uh what they're,calling a sick out to demand adequate,testing before resuming in-person,classes this is not a district-wide,thing uh like in chicago it's just a,group of teachers but it does seem to be,spreading and it's amidst this um you,know sort of widening conversation,about in-person versus remote teaching,what effect you know that has on,teachers what effect not going back has,on kids and uh we've noticed that the,conversation around this can be fairly,irrational at times i'd like to show,what i hope is the apex of that,irrationality,so uh claire jeffrey editor-in-chief of,mother jones uh had this to say she's,not the bad guy in this case but she,said uh is anyone pushing closures that,aren't solely prompted by staff,shortages due to their own infections so,this is uh nate silver who you're,probably familiar with he's the supposed,data guy who basically just makes lots,of bad predictions online anyway he had,to say in response to clara jeffrey,suppose you think that school closures,were a disastrous invasion of iraq,magnitude or perhaps greater policy,decision shouldn't that merit some,further reflection well that's a,bombastic claim but maybe he doesn't get,what he's saying there so she tried to,clarify saying you think this was a,policy decision equivalent to the deaths,of 460 000 people and the destabilizing,of an entire region and do you think,parents and educators have not been,reflecting so he's reminded of the,comparison he just made what it actually,represents and he doubles down and says,yeah i think depriving tens of millions,of school children of an in-person,education for a year or longer is,absolutely on that magnitude,no question,well i would advise some question in the,future the idea that,while it's certainly not preferable and,we should care about the effects and we,should do something about the effects of,having to do school via zoom,it's not quite the same as killing over,a half million people,and you know totally throwing into chaos,in the entire region but anna i don't,know do you disagree,the fact that anyone would take,anything that nate silver has to say,seriously at this point is,in my opinion ridiculous like he has,already destroyed any and all,credibility that he had and the fact,that he's,making this ridic okay and by the way,let me just give you guys some,background on on how i feel about the,whole school situation so you can,understand,like this has nothing to do with like oh,i disagree with him on the topic of,schools opening for in-person learning,i do agree that at this point it is,incredibly damaging to school children,uh to not be able to go in school for,in-person learning both academically but,also when it comes to their own mental,health when it comes to their ability to,uh connect and relate to other students,like it is damaging for students i think,in the beginning of the pandemic when we,don't have a vaccine and we don't know,enough to keep ourselves safe,it made sense to shut schools down so,my whole take on returning to in-person,learning is that it's important to do so,we're obviously dealing with a very,different situation today compared to,the beginning of the pandemic where we,have the vaccines available we have the,boosters available uh the majority of,teachers and and staff are already fully,vaccinated you know i think that there,is a little bit of a disconnect where,there's still a lot of panic about covid,similar to what we experienced in the,very beginning of the pandemic and i i,don't think that that panic needs to be,there okay but at the same time you know,as much as i want students to go back to,in-person learning,there are both educators who are calling,in sick because they are testing,positive for let's say the new variant,uh and then there's also the issue of,parents not sending their kids back to,school as well so if you look at new,york city schools uh the new mayor eric,adams is demanding that schools go back,to in-person learning but on monday of,this week one-third of students didn't,show up and so,it's not just about the educators it's,not just about the unions,people are still uncomfortable going,back into the office or sending their,children to school now with all of that,said i just wanted everyone to know what,my views are on this whole uh in-person,learning debate,nate silver is insane like he's insane,to make that comparison is,insane,first off it minimizes the damage that,we've done in these insane wars that has,led to,so many civilians,not suffering not just suffering,mentally has led to civilians dying,dying yeah,dying to compare that to the damage,that's being done with remote learning,is insane,and so if you felt that he had any,credibility left,please come to the come to the light,okay leave th

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#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think

we're really excited to have our next,speaker here nate silver is the,editor-in-chief of 538.,um and he uh,uh came to our poker game recently oh,nate came to our game come on out nate,ran the game over,who was the big who's the big loser that,night i think wait who is the big loser,because nate was the big winner right,well i he was the big winner i was,basically trying i think,i think i donated a little bit to uh,nate silver's new uh model y,i think you got the model s coming to,the game um this was the largest poker,win you've had in your life largest cash,game win yeah by,a factor of five,two two okay yeah uh well we're happy to,donate um you're getting by the way your,speaker fee i just canceled it okay um,but uh ladies and gentlemen uh nate,silver on the mind of a gambler cool,rain,man we open source,i'm really excited to talk to you all,today um i'm working on a book,about gambling risk and rationality for,the term critical thinking to,rationality um,it's partly involved talking to people,about global societal risks so talking,to people about the risk of nuclear war,which is like not very cheery,conversations by the way,but also people who take risk for a,living or at the very least manage risk,and have real skin in the game they're,not just some actuary getting a salary,they're they're assessing risk and,making big decisions financially mostly,based on on that assessment um,so i've started out talking to poker,players and sports bettors i'm a former,poke player myself i still play,recreation a lot i'm currently um,i think number 301 in the global poker,rankings not that i look that up every,morning,uh,but mostly it's the examples of talking,to other,fantastic poker players and sports,bettors about their process and i'm also,talking now more,two vcs,two founders to hedge fund managers for,example um,there are a lot of similarities there's,a certain type of person that's been,talking about today,personality traits modes of thinking it,even affects maybe their political views,a little bit and you see a lot of things,in common,so i gave you someone's context already,this is a work in progress i mean the,book is kind of halfway,zero percent written about 50 research,so things may change i'm evolving and,learning and correcting things um,but it's fun to write a book it's fun to,have great conversations with the,besties and other people and really kind,of experience this firsthand so i'm,going to start with some things that i,think are relatively straightforward and,obvious and then get into things that,are maybe less so toward the end but one,really obvious one is that successful,gamblers think probabilistically it's,not just a matter of understanding,probability but being,comfortable with uncertainty being,willing to take bets on an uncertain,basis that's kind of table sticks for,even getting into,any field involving risk,in poker at least you probably also need,a fair amount of mathematical ability,there are now these things called,solvers in poker that come up with a,game theory optimal strategy for every,situation,it's a very complex situation it's way,too hard to memorize you have to kind of,develop a mathematical intuition behind,it um but even players with rare,exception phil hellmuth might be the one,exception actually right,but even players who are known as being,field players or exploitive players,people who rely on tells and psychology,and table talk i talked to daniel,negroni for example one of the probably,five best book players of all time and,he told me that about four years ago he,realized that these solver kids as he,calls them the math quizzes were were,better than him at least at certain,forms of poker and he totally remade his,game to look at computer solutions to be,more studious and mathematical and it's,improved his results quite a bit,um in the vc field i don't know you if,you're necessarily doing as much,modeling as i might in an election model,for example but at the very least people,understand the intuition and the,intuition is,you need both but i think the intuition,is more important than the application,number two this one ought to be really,obvious um but it needs to be said,successful gamblers are highly,competitive things that you hear from,people,over and over again is i want to kind of,prove people wrong i want to outsmart,the competition,i want to show who's best it's almost,more this motivation than financial,motivation i think,um it's partly a matter of you can't,settle for being average as a gambler,the average poker player loses money to,the house so does the average sport's,better so therefore you have to deviate,from average in some ways um,but kind of one conclusion i've come to,talking to people for this book is that,human beings are,are a competitive species right to get,people to get along in society is pretty,hard you know one good thing about,capitalism is that you have some managed,type of competition democracy is kind of,a type of competition and that's,prob

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Nate Silver Just Released His Senate Forecast. Here's Why I Think It's Terrible

hello everybody and welcome back to a,brand new video and in today's video,we're going to be taking a look at Nate,Silver's new model for the 2022 midterm,elections,so in case you missed it uh yesterday,Nate silver in 538 but mostly Nate,silver came out with their model for the,2022 midterm elections they did a senate,model which we're looking at today but,they also did a house and gubernatorial,model which we'll talk about hopefully,next week or some point down the line in,the near future but today we'll be,focusing on the Senate model because I,think it's the easiest to look at for,right now but again if you want to see,me talk with the house model don't worry,I'll probably get to it within the next,seven eight days so let's just read the,Top Line,the Republicans have according to Nate,silver a 55 chance of retail of retaking,the Senate the Democrats have a 45,chance of holding it so right off the,bat you can tell silver right now,essentially thinks this is a coin flip,I don't agree with that like again the,title of this video will look pretty,harsh for Nate silver right and look,I don't love Nate silver I I respect his,work I think it's cool to read what he,says I enjoy his sights so I'm a I'm I'm,more protein sober than I am in titanate,silver however,I think this model is not,actually realistic and I'm going to tell,you why in this video I think this model,is very generous to Democrats in most,places there are some races where I,think that the Republicans are too,favored but in most of these Senate,races the Democratic party is being,overestimated,I don't think the Democrats have a 45,chance of winning the Senate 45 chances,versus essentially a coin flip you know,it's not exactly 50 50 but like if,you're telling me that you think that if,that if I flip a coin it's essentially,close to the chance the Democrats have,winning the senate in November I would,doubt that I think the Democrats are in,the worst position than eight silver,expects when you look at the races he's,forecasting here which we will do right,now I think in most of the Swing States,he's overestimated the Democratic,party's chances of victory so let's just,take a look into what's going on here so,uh the first competitive race we'll be,looking at is the state of Nevada and it,is a pure tie right here 50 50 uh,between black salt and Cortez masado and,if you and if you look at this race it's,has a very wide range of outcomes but,the widest range or the most blowout,they forecasted was a lack salt plus 28,victory,so that's kind of the strongest,deviation towards the Republicans as,strong as the deviation towards,Democrats is about Cortez masto Plus 19.,I think we all know the race will be,very close it'll be somewhere in the,middle here but I don't think when you,look at this map I don't think you can,make an argument for the Democrats,having a 45 chance of winning a sign it,while not being favored in Nevada I've,got the Democrats favorite in Nevada,I'll pull up my map right here this is,my prediction I got them favored in,Nevada it's very close race I think it's,essentially a toss-up but I don't have,them favored in the Senate I have them,at a 35 chance of winning the Senate and,I have them winning Nevada Nate silver,thinks the Democrats have a 10 higher,chance of winning the Senate than I do,but he has them losing Nevada so that,doesn't make a ton of sense for a couple,of reasons first of all when you look at,the races Democrats need to hold to win,the Senate it's Nevada Arizona Georgia,and I guess they could trade,Pennsylvania for one of these races but,let's just assume that they have to hold,these three seats that are competitive,they're not like it's hard to see a,snare in which they lose Nevada but pick,up Pennsylvania to make up for that or,whatever Nevada is a state of all the,four states we're talking about here,which are Nevada George Arizona,Pennsylvania if that was The Bluest,state by over a point Biden 1.2.4,without campaigning there he didn't,really try he thought he had it in the,bag and he ended up winning it by a lot,less than people expected him to Win It,by,so I think the Democrats,certainly will try harder this year,they'll certainly have a better turnout,operation because again you have to,remember Vegas is at the heart of,democratic politics in Nevada and it was,hampered by the pandemic so their,turnout operation Nevada was really hurt,due to the pandemic,and with Cortez mausto being a you know,she's a good pretty good incumbent she,rang even with Hillary Clinton in 2016,when Hillary Clinton did quite well in,Nevada and you also have to remember,that Biden's a lot of Biden's you know,failures in Nevada came from Clark,County which he still won but he didn't,really do that well he lost around with,Hispanic specifically Hispanic women,without College the reason I think,Cortez Master is one of the better,incumbents for Democrats in that regard,she's a Hispanic woman I think she,usually appeals to uh Hispanic women in,Las Ve

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538's Nate Silver: 'It's hard to find a clear path for Democrats' to win Senate

and now we're joined by America's top,political statistician Nate Silver from,538 here to break down his team's latest,forecast for the midterms Nate thanks,for joining us let's start with Texas,how do you see the race so the polls,have Cruz up by a fairly solid March in,their six or seven points on average we,give them about a eighty percent chance,of winning we should say though Texas is,a tricky state to pull beta would rely,on Hispanic voters young voters people,who newly migrated to Texas if every,eligible voter in Texas turned out that,could be a very close race if not you,can seem getting forty seven forty eight,percent you need 50 to win and it's,still a very red state you should be,seeing that number eighty a lot from,your forecast today the over senator,Organa state is on with a lot of stuff,let's take of the Senate floor cast,we're gonna put it up right now what do,we have there are two and nine chance,Democrats win control seven and nine,chance Republicans keep control just shy,of 80 percent there 79 yeah and it's not,a coincidence that that's very similar,to the Texas forecast because it's hard,to find a clear path for Democrats right,now they have to win one of Texas,Tennessee or North Dakota oh they're all,behind right and they're all behind in,those races if you are to have a very,good turn again then they're not so far,behind where it's hopeless and that's,where you know the 20% is a real,tangible probability but they're the,cemetery race by race driven forecasts,and those races that looked like toss,ups before and now have shifted into,what we call the lean Republican column,meaning that they have to kind of sweep,all the toss-ups Democrats and then when,one of these that look a little bit,difficult so you probably need polls to,be off overall and the way they were for,example in 2016 where they just beat,their polls across the board then we're,talking about a possible path but but,the Senate math is really tough in all,these very red state so the Democrats,say control you might even see,Republicans pick up seats oh sure yeah I,know it's it's at least as like that the,GOP would gain seats and they're,scenarios where they went all the,toss-up races and they could they could,win three Senate seats even in a world,where they lose the house potentially,okay let's look at the house as well,there were a flip side of the Senate,numbers writers put up the house numbers,right now you see seven and nine chance,six and seven chance the Democrats win,control one in seven chance Republicans,keep control so there he comes down to,85 percent chance the Democrats win,control that sounds a lot bigger than it,is right yeah look I mean if,we're running a business and I told you,there's a 15% chance right equips a,chance that your key supplier won't make,its delivery you would treat that as a,very tangible real-world risk and you,would do things to hedge against it the,thing about the house is that you cannot,circle 23 districts where you say oh I,know for sure Democrats will win these,maybe 10 12 15 look very likely however,you have a field of maybe 80 90 100,potential pickups mathematically,probably the dice come up good enough,for Democrats and know who those,districts but like they're not a lot of,guarantees and the house is very much,fought at a district by district level,and only a handful of seats for the,Democrats to lose the seat and that's,why I mean it's it really is the mirror,image of the Senate where Democrats have,so much exposure in the Senate all these,incumbents you know all these very red,states just reverse of that in the house,where Democrats are kind of in a no-lose,situation almost literally in the house,where they might have four or five seats,they could lose versus 100 GOP seats in,play not a lot of guarantees but that's,why we show like a very wide range,anywhere from a 20 seat gain if,Democrats have a disappointing night,which is not quite enough up to 50 60,seats if the turnout is is very high,well what are the biggest X factors that,increase the uncertainty in your model,it is turnout I mean it's turnout is,always difficult for pollsters to,forecast and the fact that you have a,lot of districts that have not had,competitive races in a long time,turnouts even more difficult to forecast,there than in a state like Florida for,example and we have two weeks to go you,know I would not put it past us for have,for us to have another October surprise,or two and the era of Trumpy and news,cycles as the important caution right,there Nate Silver thanks very much

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What Happened To Nate Silver?

a 702 area code who's this where he come,from,hey Sam it's bro from Engel from Las,Vegas bro flamingo from Las Vegas what's,on your mind hey Sam I don't going on,Mike how you doing,I'm all right um two things I want to,point out uh first thing this is kind of,mine the league stuff but I think it's,worth mentioning okay before I go on,actually sell it to the guys who said to,me out on the call about Joe Biden I,really appreciated brother-in you're,absolutely right he's ban on women but,uh looking into that later but um the,first thing I want to point out was I,did you guys see the tweet about all,mates over when he basically talked,about you know all the white liberals,have left Bernie right,yeah and loving bar residue left I mean,I know I know there's a lot of news,going on guys but like people like and,Mike and I had this conversation too,Michael Thursday way back but guys like,that need to be punished when they say,stupid stuff like that you need to hold,them to account because that that's,absolutely ridiculous in into your guy's,point he's not even a data guy anymore,this guy is getting almost I was almost,let's say like hotcakes there's almost,like trolls at this point like how could,even say something like that,well grievant million dollars I think I,mentioned this actually the other day,Nate Silver had a tweet that was arguing,that you know people are saying you know,Bernie Sanders took grief last time,around for not having a diverse,coalition of supporters he has now the,most diverse coalition of supporters,measured by the way that people measured,diversity in just about every other,context except for in Nate Silver's,Twitter feed that one day when he said,that the reason why Bernie Sanders has,diversity and that there are there are,component his his support is made up of,is multiracial and multi economic status,is because,most of the white people who supported,him in 2016 left there by raising the,percentages of black supporters young,supporters I guess Asian supporters and,that they're just the residue of his,support from 2016 which is just I mean,it's it's crazy we don't measure anybody,else's support in any other context,relative to the potential of support,that could be theirs in other words we,don't say like God you know so few,people voted for Hillary Clinton,relative to the world we don't say that,because there's a billion to do no,majority of the people of color vote,right she only got yes you only got a,portion of the American right with God,and if you include all the people who,didn't vote yeah I mean it's it's just,you know if you completely Dhoni she,actually did not pick up the woman's,vote is it a very very strained way of,trying to make it seem like Sanders,diversity of support is irrelevant and I,mean but but yes I agree but I don't you,know what I got to be honest with you I,think the reason why Nate Silver starts,to tweet stuff like that is that because,the star has faded on some level and,it's very difficult to be out of that,limelight and he does though I mean that,guy has like a lot of these people he,has a very very like look I'll draw some,distinctions and I make no apologies you,know there are big differences between,Sanders and Warren that need to be,spelled out but it's you know there's,degrees of either saying they're the,same thing which is absolutely false on,the on to the other extreme of Nate,Silver who really does I mean clearly,have a very bizarre or irrational,fixation and hatred of Bernie Sanders,and his supporters and it's very it's,very weird and very bizarre and very,sick to watch and there is a lot of lies,and a lot of gas lettings,you know it's that balance of ignoring,the trash but also um you know some of,it needs to be addressed I just I want,to say there's an amazing new piece by,Adolph read jr. that just dropped in New,Republic called the myth of class,reductionism which I would recommend,everybody read urgently take on this,thing you said to be very interesting,you know with the pitchman on the rise,joe biden's premise is completely in,peril and completely in parallel and you,guys made this point and i think this,applies Nancy Pelosi basically again Joe,Biden baby trunk no with this with him,being held to account allegedly you know,saying to the Pietschmann you know does,the whole Joe Biden's whole campaigns,premises dues on is is in trouble,however we have to be very careful guys,when you know when uh when the media,types from the New York Times and all,the all the other media establishment to,be inside a launder Nancy Pelosi for,doing this when it's been completely in,completely incompetent on every level,how she handled this because you I,remember you guys talked about how Joe,Biden if you enter the White House you,launder the Republicans wherever we,gotta make sure that these guys won't,get beat launder doing away yeah I mean,I the first thing I tweeted the other,night was something to the effect of,like we're gonna see a bunch of these,pieces saying

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FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Plays Epic Poker Hand vs Jason Somerville

that being said though the vast majority,of other players in terence chan spot,would already be out they would have,raised along the way a big bet here big,bed there so for terence chan to still,be alive to still be here and uh to have,more chips than jason somerville it,shows truly what contender he is and,somerville's going to war here i i could,see all the chips going in right now i,expect them to yeah cards will go on,their back it'll be a flip,that went last time,ace king verse sevens jason somerville,at risk it's 145 on the nose,got king queen again i think it's more,than okay,sorry 165.,fair fight,i think that's a fair fight,see the percentage is the bottom left,corner,good luck good luck silver a slight,favorite delayed,ace king kevin martin ace king come on,one time come on,just queen jack deuce with two spades,sure,sounds like we have professional poker,players make it fun i just don't want to,have a seven,kevin martin booster railing jason,somerville that would ruin the fun yeah,exactly at least it'd probably be a,spade though,that's true that's very true,if you got two spades here and then the,seven of spades on the river one spade,oh wow,what a flop i was in the ballpark now,the seven well the match yeah now now,the jack of spades for the jackpot,so you're gonna lose if,yeah yeah yeah because if if it's a,board pair then you then you're done,yeah if it's a seven you're live,right i guess i guess you also have a,straight flush draw,so we're looking for the board to pay,her it can't be the jack of spades,oh wow what a run out good game,room just keep playing with you guys i,mean it was 50 50 when it went in but,what a run out cool to hang out with you,for today jason versus,absolutely,i'm not even sure that this is real,right now,my very first time in the booth with you,exactly good luck guys as disappointing,thanks for the sweat will as jason,summerville is,he just got himself an extra i believe,25 000.,you

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