nate silver twitter
Nate Silver and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Twitter Tweeti want to highlight this pro
Updated on Jan 13,2023
Nate Silver and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Twitter Tweet
i want to highlight this problematic,twitter thread by nate silver,what he's trying to say is very,confusing except one has led to a,general conclusion that media as a whole,leans left,which is a typical partisan republican,talking point but nate portrays himself,as unbiased and above the partisan fray,are these tweets really unbiased let's,examine,you know we're living in a society,you're on your own,the great society,or to tell you the is i am,we live in a society,to start with who is nate silver joining,us now for his take on the race for the,white house nate silver he's a former,sports statistician turned political,analyst for the last 15 years or so he's,run 538.com,a site dedicated to political polling,he's very well known and regularly,brought on television news as a,political and polling analyst,now let's get back to those tweets,in the first tweet he says that,conservatives have a large u.s audience,while progressives do not which is true,insofar as the audience for fox news is,vastly larger than the audience for,msnbc but then nate goes on to say that,the media in general is left and cites a,vanity fair op-ed which agrees on the,size difference between conservatives,and progressive audiences but says,nothing about whether average media,leans left in fact if you check through,the op-ed and read it it doesn't say,anything at all like that the op-ed is,by dan pfeiffer former obama,communications director and now podcast,creator in a sea of boring podcasts,regardless phifer argues that dems,should be building louder media,megaphones to promote their policy,agenda just like how fox news works but,he certainly doesn't lament a media,landscape that leans left in fact he,doesn't touch upon that issue at all but,i think it's reasonable to assume he'd,argue the exact opposite of fast okay so,maybe nate relies on his second tweet to,back up that media landscape lien's left,claim but if so the sourcing for nate's,second tweet is equally problematic,here he relies on screenshots of two,graphs one of which is from pew and the,other is not clearly sourced but if you,dig into the graphs themselves they,don't really say what he says they say,either,let's dig into those two graphs,both of these are built on questionnaire,polls you call a bunch of people ask,them their opinions on various things,and conduct an analysis from the results,the first graph shows that self-reported,democrats tend to use a wider range of,social media outlets than republicans,who use far fewer we're talking sites,like instagram twitter reddit ticktock,youtube etc horizontally the graph shows,the percentage of u.s adults who report,having used a list of social media sites,in the columns below,along each column is the percentage of,u.s adults who say they are either,republican-leaning or democratic-leaning,but confusingly the right-wing is,presented on the left side of the graph,while the left-wing is on the right side,which you know okay bad graph design,this shows the reported differential,between left versus right in each of the,site's user base that is the number of,people who self report is left leaning,versus right leaning and a corrected,random sample,we'll just trust they got the sampling,right however to read it the smaller the,differential the more widely it's used,by both the left and right the bigger,the differential the more partisan they,interpret the audience to be get it,this is where nate gets his claim that,facebook is neutral,because according to this poll result,the small differential says that,facebook attracts both left and right,leaning users about equally whereas,sites like instagram twitter and,whatsapp have very high spreads which,lean left or democratic presumably he,refers to these as left-leaning sites,because of that differential spread in,the poll let's think about that,interpretation,first it relies on the presumption that,the user base in these sites are,homogeneous that is there's only one,soapbox for the entire audience and a,huge competition to gain access to it,which everyone listens to equally,but that's not the case,each of these sites has built-in echo,chambers where partisans go to meet each,other whether that's twitter with its,large differential and a user base that,leans left or facebook where the,differential between left and right is,small and according to nate is therefore,neutral,but in both cases though twitter may,have proportionally fewer right-leaning,users compared to facebook,both self-segment audiences by interests,and political values with little,intersectionality between them,when lefties talk they talk to lefties,and when righties talk they talk to,righties,this is that partisan social media,bubble,so relative audience size across social,media sites doesn't really matter if,everyone is just talking with their own,anyway,if you think about it,how does this graph actually argue for,facebook having political neutrality in,contrast to twitter leaning left it's a,terrible oversimplification
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