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Why do Trump and Putin get along so well? | Michael McFaul | TEDxStanfordyeah this is what I want to

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Updated on Jan 22,2023

Why do Trump and Putin get along so well? | Michael McFaul | TEDxStanford

yeah this is what I want to talk about,if if you work on foreign policy or,national security as I do this has been,a rather and I'm a former diplomat so,let me use a diplomatic adjective,challenging time because one of our,candidates candidate Trump and now our,president has said some incredibly,unorthodox things about how we should,conduct ourselves across the globe about,China about Mexico about our allies in,Europe about our allies in Asia and he,pretty much says them on a repeated,basis through Twitter or other places,but nothing is more mysterious than this,odd relationship between Trump and Putin,it cuts against the grain of if you're a,Republican,everything that Trump has said as a,campaign as a candidate and most,certainly still as a president is,against everything or Republicans have,believed let alone Democrats so I think,it demands some explanation so I want to,answer before lunch three big questions,first,why does Putin like Trump second why,does Trump like Putin and third will it,change our policy between these two,countries so first why does Putin like,Trump it's pretty simple,it's actually pretty simple uh trunk,supports Putin and his policies so why,wouldn't vitamin Putin support candidate,Trump and now President Trump on the,campaign trail candidate Trump has said,that he would lift sanctions on Russia,these were sanctions put in place after,Russia annexed territory in Ukraine,Crimea and then doubled down and invaded,eastern Ukraine they were put in for a,reason in my view and they should only,be lifted if Russia changes its behavior,and yet candidate Trump has said he,would look into doing that second he,said when asked as a candidate that he,would look into recognizing Crimea,territory that was annexed by Russia,first time that territory has been,annexed in Europe since 1945 uh he would,look into that music to Putin's ears,third he said NATO is obsolete what,could be better if you're Vladimir Putin,than to hear an American say that NATO,is obsolete fourth check it out maybe,I'm wrong about this follow me on,Twitter at McFarland and and text me,today but I've never heard the president,talk about democracy or human rights and,advocating for it,music - Vladimir Putin's ears he hates,it when Americans talk about that and,for me most offensively was won on,Morning Joe in December 2015 you know,it's a kind of chatty show I'm on from,time to time I work for NBC and so you,can get your guard can get down for a,while maybe maybe didn't really mean,what you said by Joe Scarborough asked,him about Putin and about the killing of,some of the people that have been killed,Joe kind of exaggerated by the way but,instead of saying that's bad Vladimir a,candidate Trump said well we do a lot of,killing people we do a lot of killing to,somehow equated what we do abroad what,our soldiers do abroad with what,Vladimir Putin does so if you're sitting,in the Kremlin why these are all very,obvious reasons why you would like,candidate Trump and president Trump you,don't need a PhD in international,relations to figure that out,he goes on and on this is now after he,was elected he still praises a lad,American that's that's nice because,Vladimir Putin doesn't get a lot of,praise from American presidents this,support for Putin the support for Trump,excuse me is within society as well,societal elements support them civil,society people support them and I just,want to remind you that these positions,from Donald Trump are antithetical to,traditions in the Republican Party,that's why Putin likes Trump it goes,further than that so I'm going to just,tell you about it which is he didn't,just like a Trump he helped Trump get,elected the Russian government and their,entities stole data from Americans,publish that data in a way to try to,help Trump win and Clinton lose they,also ran ads they also were on the,Internet,they also sponsored BOTS these are,machine BOTS that that had played a role,in influence the way that we talked,about our election and I want to make,sure you understand this we were,attacked last year our sovereignty was,violated when we were trying to do one,of our most sacred things that we do,choose our own leaders so not only did,Putin support Trump and his ideas he,also tried to do something about it,there's a second reason why Putin like,strum he's the opposite of my former,boss Secretary Clinton all of those,things I just described for you are,things that she did not support she,doesn't support the recognition of,Crimea she doesn't support the lifting,of sanctions she talks about democracy,and in particular she talked about,democracy at a time when it really upset,Vladimir Putin,there was an election in December 2011,in Russia parliamentary election by our,views in the US government I was working,at the White House at the time I was,falsified that kind of the normal rates,normal rates kind of a weird word to use,for pulse' fication but Russian,elections four or five percent no big,deal at least in our view bu

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Explaining the Causes and Consequences of Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine with Mike McFaul

Explaining the Causes and Consequences of Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine with Mike McFaul

I'm going to talk about some,pretty scary things today, so I apologize for that upfront.,I'm going to end on a good note,if I can get to my last slides, but we are live in a pretty scary times.,And I just want to remind you where we're at in this moment in history.,We're in a moment where we're witnessing,the first major conventional war in Europe since World War Two.,We are witnessing annexation,in Europe since the beginning of World War Two,and on the cusp. We're not there yet.,But but I would say having studied wars,and teach about wars here at Stanford, this is one of the scariest moments,about a return to great power war again since World War Two.,Maybe 1950, maybe Korea.,But but probably not.,I think it's actually more like World War Two and tragically, because of what Mr.,Putin is saying.,We are now having to worry, at least I'm worried about,the specter of the use of nuclear weapons.,And a lot of people,like to compare that to 1962, but that's actually not where I would go.,I think you have to go back to 1945.,I think it's actually more,a scarier moment,like that than even during the Cuban Missile Crisis.,I'm going to try to answer three or four big questions.,I'm going to spend most of my time on how we got here,because where we're at and where the future is.,You can watch me on TV for where we're at, where the future is.,Political scientists are bad at predicting the future,,so I'm not going to pretend I know how.,By the way, I worked five years in the government.,So is the CIA.,So I'm going to really draw on the first question.,How did we get here?,Because this is a class without quizzes, right?,But then I'll go through,those other questions and if I have enough time, I'll talk about,is our role for Stanford to play in this tragic, horrible, scary time.,All right.,First, how did we get here?,What are the causes of this conflict right now?,Why did Putin invade Ukraine when he did?,I think there's kind of three big arguments in my world,that I want to wrestle with for a while with you.,Ultimately, I think number three,is the most important one, but all of them have a bit of truth to them.,Right.,All right.,So let's start with power politics.,Anybody here?,Take Poly Sci, 35 from Steve Krassner.,All right.,All right.,So if you had class with Paul, with with Steve Krassner,,you would remember that he talked about the balance of power,between states, states or the driver of politics.,Right.,And what I'm showing you here is a thousand years of European history.,And what are you seeing?,You're seeing some countries become bigger, more powerful.,The weaker countries on their border are getting smaller.,Sometimes they disappear. Right.,Poland disappears for a while. Ukraine disappears.,And this is a thousand years of history.,One of the arguments is that this is just normal politics.,You know, it is what it is.,Whether it's good or bad, that's a different thing.,But what you see today, Soviet Union collapsed.,Russia was really weak.,Russia's back.,Now, Russia has a lot more power than before.,And so Russia's just behaving like a normal great power.,And there's nothing new here.,This goes back hundreds of years,,some would say thousands of years, all the way back to two centuries.,Right. So I want to be clear. Power matters.,Let's let's not let's not dismiss power.,You're not interested in a lecture about,Moldovan threats to security in Europe, right?,Well, maybe you are. I don't know any Moldovans here.,And I love Moldova.,It's a great country. I didn't I didn't mean to disparage Moldova.,But the point is, capabilities matter, power matters.,And countries that don't have those capabilities were less concerned with.,So power matters. It's part of the story.,But I don't think it's a whole story for a couple of reasons here.,One, I can think of some powers that have risen, that haven't attacked,their neighbors, that haven't annexed the territory of their neighbors.,Right.,Japan, Germany, after World War Two, even countries,like Poland, Poland, a lot stronger today than 30 years ago.,I'm not worried about them invading their neighbors or annexing territory.,China, we can come back to that if you're interested in questions.,But China is not yet annexing or invading neighbors and most certainly our country.,And when I say our I mean, I know we're not all Americans here.,So just to be clear, I'm talking about the United States.,We've gone to a lot of wars, and I'm happy to talk about,those in questions like what we've done right, what we've done wrong.,But we're not in the business of annexing territory.,We were in the past, but we fought World War Two,in large measure to end annexation.,And by the way, for most of the Cold War, with a few exceptions,,there are few exceptions.,But most of the Cold War,and for the last 30 years, we didn't have major annexation.,Now we do.,And I don't think Power explains that.,All the other pieces. Why now?,Why not earlier? Russia had power before.,Why is it now?,Next argument, NA

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McFaul: ‘I See No Possibility For A Negotiation’ Between Russia And Ukraine Right Now

McFaul: ‘I See No Possibility For A Negotiation’ Between Russia And Ukraine Right Now

as we've seen new reporting especially,from Eastern Ukraine right now we're,Vladimir zielinski was on the front,lines now just 48 hours ago the Russians,have changed their strategy in some way,putting more forces up front which,experts suggest may make it more,challenging for Ukraine to regain some,of the lands that it has lost is is,there any potential for a diplomatic,solution here does this end in some kind,of stalemate what is what is the end of,this thing how does it come to a close,well first right now there isn't a,stalemate both sides believe that they,can achieve offensive capabilities in,the front in the future right they both,are planning for offensives so until,those conditions are not ripe on the,battlefield I see no possibility for a,negotiation,um second however uh the ukrainians are,constrained they do not have in their,estimation the kinds of offensive,weapons that they need tanks fighter,jets long-range missile systems these,attackums to go on the offensive and,they're worried about a Russian,counter-offensive coming as as soon as,next month uh so that's the conditions,they're in that's why zelenski came to,America came to to meet with President,Biden first to talk about those things,and then came to speak to all of,Americans to talk about why it's,important to stay the course and an,ambassador McFall is you know well,President Biden yesterday made it very,clear that the U.S is not providing,those offensive capabilities they're,giving the Patriot missile defense,system because as he said it is a,defensive weapon in his words if Russia,wants it to stop being used they should,stop attacking Ukraine the Russian,Embassy though they called yesterday's,announcement a provocative step it was,stressed that the provocative actions by,the U.S are steadily leading to an,escalation the consequences of which,cannot be imagined that was the,statement that was shared from the,Russian ambassador to the United States,do you worry about the kremlin's,response to what it views as an,escalation,well of course I worry and of course,that's the job of the president of the,United States and his team to worry,about escalation but we need to have,data about it right first of all why do,they need Patriots because Russia is,bombing their cities when Russia wasn't,bombing their cities they didn't need,Patriots Patriots are a defensive weapon,but second more important even more,importantly I think uh we've heard this,threat of escalation all the time,they're doing everything they can to,fight the war in Ukraine uh they're not,constraining themselves so why should,the ukrainians uh constrain themselves,and secondly if we're talking about,escalation towards attacking NATO uh if,you're barely fighting you've lost 50,percent of the territory you had took,took in Ukraine you're barely holding,your own against Ukraine do you really,think Putin is so irrational that at,that moment he would escalate and attack,NATO I don't believe that for a second,so you said that obviously the mindset,on both sides is that they can take more,gains they can have more gains there the,ukrainians as we know from Vladimir,zielinski want those offensive weapons,they're not getting them right now,without those offensive weapons are they,able to win this war,well I'd say two things one that could,do it a lot more quickly if they had,those weapons and that's zelenski's,argument right we want to end this war,as fast as possible this helps us to end,them number two without the weapons,they're still going to keep fighting I,think there's this misperception,sometimes here in the United States and,in Europe that if they don't have the,weapons they won't fight that's not just,true they're going to keep fighting,third the question you were just talking,about the question you wanted to ask the,president about negotiations uh number,one that's a question for zielinski not,Biden right that's not for us to judge,uh but number two remember even if,zielinski might someday in the future,think that it's in his national,interests to not try to take Crimea he,would be a fool in terms of negotiating,with the Russians to mention that now I,negotiated with the Russians I,negotiated when I was in the government,you don't give away anything until,everything has been negotiated no I,think you're exactly right and to be,clear that is the question I wanted to,ask president zielinski as I was,conflating my presidents there and,asking that question of you earlier,Ambassador mcpaul always good to see you,we wish you a great holiday season,thanks so much,thanks for watching our YouTube channel,follow today's top stories and breaking,news by downloading the NBC News app

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"No Fly Zone" Is A Euphemism For A Declaration Of War - Amb. Michael McFaul

"No Fly Zone" Is A Euphemism For A Declaration Of War - Amb. Michael McFaul

>> Stephen: EVERYBODY, GIVE IT UP FOR JON BATISTE AND STAY,HUMAN RIGHT OVER THERE!, ( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) >> Stephen: JON... YOU KNOW...,I..., ( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) JON, I HOLD IN MY HAND-- I'VE,GOT HERE-- WE'VE GOT A COUPLE OF AMAZING GUESTS TONIGHT.,BEFORE WE GET TO THE GUESTS, I WANTED TO SAY YOU KNOW HOW LUCKY,I FEEL.,ONE OF THE REASONS I'M LUCKY TO HAVE THE SHOW IS I GET TO SHARE,THE STAGE WITH YOU AND THE BAND EVERY NIGHT AND WHAT A PLEASURE,IT IS.,BECAUSE NO MATTER WHAT, NO MATTER WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE,WORLD, THAT MUSIC YOU DO IS A FORCE OF POSITIVITY.,IT'S BEAUTIFUL.,BEAUTY IS TRUTH, TRUTH IS BEAT BUTTY.,THAT IS ALL YOU KNOW AND ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW.,AND I'M CURIOUS WHAT YOUR REACTION IS TO HOW MOVING IT IS,TO SEE THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE PLAYING MUSIC IN THE FACE OF,THIS EVIL.,>> Jon: FOR ME, THAT'S WHAT MUSIC IS ALL ABOUT.,THAT'S THE WHOLE REASON THAT IT EXISTS UNTIL THE UNIVERSE., ( APPLAUSE ) BE IT UNIFIES, AND IT GIVES,HOPE.,WHEN YOU PLAY MUSIC AND YOU SEE PEOPLE GATHERING JUST TO HEAR,IT, THEY FORGET, JUST FOR THAT MOMENT, WHAT'S HAPPENING, AND IT,FILLS THEM WITH SOMETHING THAT'S VERY GOOD FOR THEIR SOUL.,THAT'S WHAT MUSIC IS ABOUT.,>> Stephen: IT'S A FOOD, IT'S A FOOD.,>> Jon: IT'S FOOD, SPIRITUAL FOOD.,>> Stephen: COMMUNION., ( APPLAUSE ) JON, JUST A MOMENT, DENEE,BENTON, BROADSTAR AND STAR OF THE "THE GILDED AGE" WILL BE OUT,HERE IN A MOMENT.,MY GUEST TONIGHT IS A PROFESSOR AT STANFORD,UNIVERSITY WHO SERVED AS THE U.S. AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA FROM,2012 TO 2014.,PLEASE WELCOME BACK TO "THE LATE SHOW," AMBASSADOR MICHAEL,McFAUL!,♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪, ( APPLAUSE ) >> Stephen: GOOD TO SEE YOU,AGAIN.,>> GREAT TO BE BACK.,>> Stephen: AMBASSADOR MICHAEL, HOW DO YOU LIKE IT?,>> MIKE'S JUST FINE I CAN CALL YOU STEVE?,>> Stephen: NO.,>> OKAY.,>> Stephen: I MIGHT CALL YOU AMBASSADOR BECAUSE I'M A SILLY,MAN WITH A STUPID SHOW, AND THESE ARE VERY SERIOUS TIMES AND,I'M VERY GRATEFUL YOU COULD BE HERE TO TRY TO GIVE US SOME,CONTEXT OF WHAT'S HAPPENING.,HOW LONG-- WAS IT TWO YEARS YOU WERE AN AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA?,>> TWO YEARS IN MOSCOW, BUT THREE YEARS AT THE WHITE HOUSE,WORKING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA ON RUSSIA AS WELL.,SO FIVE YEARS IN THE GOVERNMENT.,>> Stephen: I UNDERSTAND THAT YOU'RE IN TOUCH WITH PEOPLE WHO,ARE IN THE BUNKER, OR WHEREVER ZELENSKY IS.,>> THAT'S RIGHT.,>> Stephen: RIGHT NOW.,>> JUST 30 MINUTES AGO.,>> Stephen: YOU WERE JUST TALKING WITH SOME OF THEM OKAY.,>> TEXTING WITH THEM.,MY MAN STANDING RIGHT NEXT TO PRESIDENT ZELENSKY.,>> Stephen: SO WHAT ARE YOU HEARING FROM THEM?,>> WELL, TWO THINGS.,FIRST OF ALL, THAT GUY IS AN INCREDIBLE HERO OF OUR TIMES.,( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ).,ARE YOU KNOW, I HOSTED HIM AT STANFORD LAST SUMMER FOR ABOUT,FIVE HOURS.,WE HAD-- YOU KNOW, IT WAS A FUN TIME.,HE LIKES TO MAKE JOKES, TOO.,I DON'T KNOW IF YOU KNOW HIS CAREER.,>> Stephen: HE PLAYED THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE IN A COMEDY,BEFORE HE WAS THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE.,>> CORRECT.,>> Stephen: I DON'T BELIEVE IN MIXING COMEDY AND POLITICS.,>> OKAY, ALL RIGHT.,YOU'RE NOT PLANNING TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT?,OKAY.,HE JUST SAID IT HERE.,HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT.,BUT, I MEAN, HE'S AN CHARISMATIC, FUN, INTERESTING,GUY.,YOU KNOW, I FOLLOWED HIS CAREER FOR A LONG TIME.,BUT TO SEE THIS TRANSFORMATION IS QUITE REMARKABLE.,UKRAINE, YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER, IS A DEMOCRATIC PLACE.,THEY'VE GOT OPPOSITION PARTIES, PEOPLE THAT HATED HIM.,THINGS ARE NASTY THERE.,THEY'VE ALL RALLIED BEHIND HIM, AND HE'S TRULY A HEROIC FIGURE,,IN MY EYES.,SO THAT'S THE FIRST THING.,THEY'RE FIGHTING HEROICALLY.,THEY WILL FIGHT TO THE PEND UPON THEY WILL ONE DAY WIN.,I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THAT WILL BE.,BUT THEY'RE ALSO FRUSTRATED.,THEY'RE ALSO FRUSTRATE.,>> Stephen: THEY WANT MORE FROM THE WESTERN POWERS, AND US,SPECIFICALLY, OBVIOUSLY.,>> CORRECT.,>> Stephen: WHAT MORE CAN WE REALLY DO?,I WANT TO GET TO THAT SUBJECT.,WHAT CAN WE DO SHORT OF ACTUALLY GETTING IN THE MILITARY,ENGAGEMENT, TO BE FIGHTING ON THE GROUND WITH THEM OR IN THE,AIR?,>> WELL, I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD GO TO WAR WITH RUSSIA,IN UKRAINE.,SO WHEN IT'S-- YOU KNOW, THERE'S AN ARGUMENT ABOUT THE NO-FLY,ZONE, RIGHT.,THAT'S THE LATEST NEWS RIGHT NOW.,THAT MEANS-- A NO-FLY ZONE IS A EUPHEMISM FOR A DECLARATION OF,WAR.,THAT MEANS THAT AN AMERICAN PILOT SHOOT DOWN A RUSSIAN,PILOT, AND THAT'S A DECLARATION OF WAR.,SO WE SHOULD JUST CALL IT THAT.,I THINK THAT'S A MISTAKE.,I I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD DO THAT.,I SUPPORT PRESIDENT.,>> Stephen: WE WOULD ALSO HAVE TO TAKE OUT OF OUT ANTI-AIRCRAFT,BATTERIES, CORRECT?,>> CORRECT.,YOU CAN'T JUST FLY SORTIES OVER THERE.,AND THE RUSSIANS, BY THE WAY, HAVE VERY GOOD ANTI-AIRCRAFT.,>> Stephen: AND IT WOULD BE IN RUSSIA.,SO WE WOULD HAVE TO BE BOMBING IN RUSSIA.,>> CORRECT.,I THINK THAT'S OFF THE TABLE.,I SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT ON THAT.,EVERYTHING SHORT OF THAT I THINK WE SHOULD DO FOR THEM.,THAT MEANS MORE WEAPON SYSTEMS AND MORE SANCTIONS ON THE,RUSSIAN ECONOMY.,SO MORE WEAPONS, MORE SANCTIONS.,THAT'S WHAT THEY WANT.,I MEAN, HE WANTS MORE THAN THAT.,HE WANTS A

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Michael McFaul: Designating Moscow As Terrorism Sponsor Won’t Prevent US From Talking to Russia

Michael McFaul: Designating Moscow As Terrorism Sponsor Won’t Prevent US From Talking to Russia

Ambassador markful thank you very much,for your time let's start with your mark,McFall group you've been working with,the Office of the President of Ukraine,on imposing sanctions against Russian,proxies and those who support the,Kremlin in its invasion of Ukraine,currently your primary target is Russian,propagandists and opinion leaders what,are the final goal here,well so first let me clarify what we do,and what we informally do right so the,group that I coordinate is an,international working group uh that,tries to come up with new ideas to,suggest ideas for governments for new,sanctions we coordinate with the Russia,with the Ukrainian government Mr your,mock but I want to I want to emphasize,that our group is independent from the,government of Ukraine independent from,the United States government again we've,talked to everybody but we're our ideas,ultimately are just independent analysts,none of us work for any government,uh ultimately we come up with ideas uh,that we then can only be implemented by,governments right uh sanctions and or by,companies by the way we sometimes the,target of our uh activities are uh aimed,at trying to get companies to rethink,what they're doing uh the latest paper,that we just put out it's an appendix to,working paper number three that you just,uh noted uh is to give greater attention,to what we call the propagandists for,Putin's War,these are not just people on TV,uh supporting the war but these are,these can be a variety of kinds of,people soft Powers we call it in English,right uh that are indirectly supporting,Putin's regime and Putin's War uh and we,believe that there needs to be more,attention to these people that they are,not innocent uh that that if they are,performing concerts in support of the,Russian military especially if they do,so in annexed uh in territory that the,the Russians are illegally occupying uh,they should pay some consequences for,those activities correct me if I'm wrong,but you are trying to convince the US,government to recognize Russia as a,state sponsor of terrorism President,Biden said that he would not go ahead,with this and my sources at the White,House explain to me that this label,could be compared to you know a huge,blanket that you can put on Russia but,it's barely impossible to take it off,and it would make for instance the green,deal impossible so is it a done deal for,you or if there's still a chain that the,US will recognize Russia as a state,sponsor of terrorism at some point,I don't know the answer to your question,uh we did publish a paper about that we,believe that the actions that the the,Russian government is taking inside,Ukraine are terrorist acts they are,terrorizing uh non-combatants and I'm,not a lawyer but I looked at the,language of that law very very closely,and it's difficult to say in a normative,way that what Russia is doing,somehow in Ukraine is not terrorism and,I just remind your viewers uh Cuba is on,the list so tell me is Cuba terrorizing,uh people in a different country to a,greater extent than Russia is uh inside,Ukraine my answer to that is no so I,think that's a very difficult uh,argument for people to make that that,Russia somehow is a better International,actor with regard to terrorism then Cuba,is today Cuba is still on the list now I,know those are arguments from the White,House I I have colleagues who work in,the White House I understand their,concerns that they think sanctions will,be sticky uh and that you can't do,certain cooperation with Russia if,they're a state sponsor of terrorism but,actually the law gives the president the,right to uh do certain things within the,law to Grant exemptions so it's not true,that we can't work with them I would,remind your viewers that that Iran is on,that list and and yet we negotiated with,Iranian diplomats the jcpoa uh it didn't,prevent us from sitting down and talking,to them about that that was a large,major agreement so I I think there are,ways to move forward uh if if they,wanted to and and I I want to be clear I,appreciate why the Biden Administration,uh is nervous about this step I just,think the outrageous behavior of,Russians inside Ukraine uh you know,these are are terrorist acts from my the,way I look at them demands that that we,do something different and I would say,in general I I don't like the Dynamics,of sanctions where it's always,incrementalism,it's always just a little bit more a few,more people here a few more people there,uh when I don't see what Putin is doing,inside Ukraine as being incremental uh,you know he just annexed on paper not on,not in reality uh territory the size of,Portugal uh that's outrageous behavior,uh and so we need to have a commensurate,response to that outrageous behavior not,an incremental response what would this,comprehensive response look like what,would it look like what is your solution,here,we'll read our papers we've been very,explicit uh you know the the paper about,State sponsor of terrorism talks very,explicitly a

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Michael McFaul - Future of Democracy

Michael McFaul - Future of Democracy

hi everyone uh this is bessot hashim and,this is hashems economics and today we,have a great guest um our guest today is,uh ambassador marco uh welcome master,mike paul uh thanks for having me uh let,me introduce you to our audience uh uh,ambassador mcfaul is a professor at the,department of political science at,stanford and he's also a director at the,freeman spotlight institute um,for international uh for international,studies uh he's also a senior fellow at,the hover institution at supper uh,he's both an academic and uh,a person who's deeply involved in policy,uh,he served for five years at the obama,administration at the national security,council of the white house and as an,ambassador to russian federation he,regularly,he regularly writes opets for washington,post,and today uh he wrote the uh a,co-authored op-ed on ukraine i just i,just read it actually uh so uh let me,ask you about the most sort of uh,important topic of today this is,december 1 2021,what's going on in in in the border of,ukraine and,what,should we worry about,well first thanks for having me um and,uh,i used to work on central asia too when,i was at the national security council,but that was a long time ago,um but you're from uh tashkent or where,are you from originally yeah so i'm from,tashkent yes,so one of the greatest cities in the,world i've been to tashkent many times,first visited in 1992 and um i'm finally,getting back to uzbekistan this spring,with a group from stanford so after i,get back we'll have to have a longer,conversation about,politics in central asia but we'll talk,about whatever you want now,with respect to the border um,you know uh to remind your listeners,this is the second big build up that mr,putin has done on the ukrainian border,this year,this one is,qualitatively and quantitatively bigger,from what i read and what my colleagues,in the government the,the american the us government but also,friends of mine in ukraine say,um,uh mr putin,has been obsessed with ukraine for a,long long time,he doesn't consider ukraine,a truly sovereign country or a truly,independent nation from,russia and he used to say that you know,behind closed doors um,now he says it rather openly and he's,even published a long article i was just,looking at um,um called on the historical unity of,russians and ukrainians it's a it's like,a 10 000 piece word by the way uh like,obviously somebody wrote it for him but,um,you know he's had this view for a long,time,and,um,increasingly he has i think,uh escalated in his rhetoric the threats,to ukrainian sovereignty,and um i think,i don't think i know that the um the,biden administration is very worried,about this there was recently just a,nato ministerial in riga i think it,ended yesterday where this was the main,focus of attention and most certainly in,kiev it's a focus of attention,um i want to say very clearly that i do,not know,what putin's true intentions are uh,you know i've known putin for a long,time we met first in 1991,uh i've written about him for many many,years as an academic and then for the,five years i served in government,i interacted with him when he met with,usually my bosses president obama vice,president biden,secretary kerry,uh,so but i want to be clear i i know a lot,about but i don't know what his true,intentions are and i don't believe,anybody uh,knows what his true intentions are i,think that's important to understand,but because that's part of what putin,wants,putin likes it when all of us are,thinking about what he's doing,he likes uh to keep us on our toes he,likes to,do unpredictable things uh,and then see how we respond,and i think that's a situation we're in,right now he's formally said some things,about not wanting ukraine to join nato,and and others in the russian press have,said,they're doing this because they're,worried that,that kiev the government in kiev is,planning to take by force,donbass that's a eastern part of ukraine,that of course is nonsense there's no,plans that i know of to to do that,um,but you know he's he's being coercive,and he's seeing what he can get in,return from these coercive actions,i see,so,i think you've uh you you wrote about,putin uh for a very long time i think,you know how he thinks but what explains,uh his um,obsession with the uh with the with the,borders of russia and ukraine for that,matter and why do you think he wants to,act unpredictably is it part of a,character or is like a grand strategy of,foreign relations that he has,yeah that's a great question,um,again to,in my,interactions with him and studying him i,do think,there is a misconception,in my country uh probably not in,uzbekistan by the way because,uzbekistan's had a lot more uh close,personal contact with mr putin,but there's a misconception,that,that he's just a transactional leader,he's a realist,um,you know he doesn't really have an,ideology that's what many analysts argue,and i think that's categorically wrong,um,now i think it's also important to say,before i go on,p

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The time to stop Vladimir Putin was in 2000, says former Ambassador McFaul

The time to stop Vladimir Putin was in 2000, says former Ambassador McFaul

fall former u.s ambassador to russia,he's met negotiated face to face with,putin ambassador as always thank you you,know,attacking civilians trying to evacuate,is a war crime plain and simple and it,is standard fare for this maniac he did,it in chechnya he did it in syria he's,doing it in ukraine it's indisputable,the question is what might be done to,help people get out safely,it's a very hard question uh it's just,horrible what's going on as a fantastic,report you just showed,of course the negotiators the russian,and ukrainian negotiators are trying to,get some agreement,about humanitarian corridors,and they should pursue that,the last time they tried by the way the,russians suggested three quarters that,lead to russia,for those people leaving so that shows,you their sincerity but i think they've,got to keep working on that and i think,there's a role for the united nations,eventually to get directly involved in,humanitarian assistance humanitarian,corridors,that has not been attempted yet i think,they should get involved,what do you think about all this talk of,banning oil and energy imports from,russia i mean if the u.s does it and,europe doesn't how much of an impact,would it have,well i think it's symbolically important,we cannot be sending american dollars to,vladimir putin right now you just said,he's committing crimes against humanity,right,do we want to be giving him money to do,that i most certainly don't none of my,neighbors do my mom and dad and montana,don't uh they're willing to pay a few,extra pennies to stop funding that war,and by the way as you know better than,anybody,the price for oil is a world price so,like you said us stopping it i think is,more important symbolically than,anything else but it's important to do,it's got to be done i think immediately,it's incredible really you know,hindsight is always so clear but you,look back,at the atrocities in chechnya war crimes,all,then the atrocities in syria war crimes,and now we are watching war crimes,happen before our eyes it's not as if,every ukrainian is lying or that the,video we're showing is somehow falsified,it's all true we know because our people,are there witnessing it and yet,what can we do it seems we can't do,anything we didn't after chechnya we,didn't after syria we're not now,well i'd say two things on the,historical piece the time to stop putin,was in 2000 exactly what you're saying,and when i talk to my russian friends,i've been studying putin i've written 60,articles about him i met him in 91 even,well before the government service i've,been watching and writing about him and,his regime they all say in retrospect,when they had the power back in 2000,when he was a complete nobody picked by,yeltsin to be president they should have,been more proactive in stopping his,anti-democratic things that's when they,had the power to do it and they didn't,do it and we didn't help them either by,the way that that was the moment of,truth that we missed but today that's,that's for the historians argue over,today there are two things that need to,happen it's just really clear-cut for me,more weapons and more sanctions,more weapons so that the ukrainians can,fight them on the ground and sanctions,to ratchet up to put more pressure on,the economy i applaud what the biden,administration has done with their,allies and i want them to do more more,weapons and more sanctions we we tend,somehow not to we hear them but we don't,pay any attention you know when he took,over crimea clearly that was so that he,could get in and take over take over,ukraine,it's not like what he wants is ukraine,he wants to restore the russian,supremacy over the region if you get rid,of ukraine then there's no buffer to,nato nations why wouldn't we believe him,when he says he wants to do that without,that buffer then what for nato nations,is this a fade accompli i mean if he,takes over ukraine what's to stop him,from going into a nato nation except,another promise from a nation that says,you can't commit war crimes but then,lets him commit war crimes,it's a great hard question i don't have,a clear answer,but i would say two things,one,he may,sometime uh occupy all of ukraine,including lev he's made it clear that,that's his goal by the way we should,listen to what he says a little more,clearly and stop pretending that he's,some rational actor that we can you know,do some cost benefit analysis and stop,him the some of the absurd conversation,we had before this war people should be,held accountable for the the kinds of,arguments they were making about putin,when he said very clearly denotification,and destruction of the ukrainian,military denotification that is a code,word for regime change for killing,president zielinski and everybody that,led the revolution of dignity in 2014.,that's what he aims to do even if he,does that however and he lets god forbid,he doesn't but even if we think through,that scenario he will not be able to,hold ukraine uh he does not have the,military

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"Putin Is Turning Russia Into North Korea" - Amb. Michael McFaul On Russia's Growing Isolation

"Putin Is Turning Russia Into North Korea" - Amb. Michael McFaul On Russia's Growing Isolation

WE'RE BACK HERE WITH FORMER AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA, MICHAEL,McFAUL.,LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT THE END GAME OF THIS WAR IS-- NOT THAT,I'M ASKING YOU TO PREDICT THE FUTURE.,BUT LET'S START WITH ONE SIMPLE THING IS DOES PUTIN, IF IT,REALLY IS HE'S THE MAN MOTIVATING ALL OF THIS, WHAT ARE,HIS WEAK POINTS?,WHAT ARE THINGS THAT COULD GET TO HIM?,DO THESE SANCTIONS GET TO HIM?,IS THERE A POPULAR UPRISING AGAINST HIM?,DO THE OLIGARCHS TURN AGAINST HIM?,WHAT ARE THE WAYS IN WHICH PUTIN HIMSELF COULD BE REMOVED FROM,OFFICE OR BE DISSUADED FROM CONTINUING THIS WAR?,>> YOU'RE RIGHT.,I'M NOT GOOD AT PREDICTING THE FUTURE.,POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AREN'T VERY GOOD AT THAT.,BY THE WAY I WORKED FIVE YEARS IN THE GOVERNMENT.,THE C.I.A. IS NOT VERY GOOD AT IT, EITHER., ( LAUGHTER ) REVOLUTIONS, BEFORE THEY HAPPEN,,THEY SEEM IMPOSSIBLE, AND AFTERWARDS THEY SEEM INEVITABLE,,SO I WANT TO THEY WITH HUMILITY.,I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION.,BUT I CAN GIVE YOU A COUPLE OF GUESSES.,ONE, PUTIN DOESN'T HAVE AN END GAME IN UKRAINE.,SO LET'S SAY HE TAKES KYIV.,LET'S SAY, YOU KNOW, HE CAPTURES ZELENSKY OR ZELENSKY FLEES AND,HE'S AROUND ALL THE CITIES.,THEN WHAT?,HE DOESN'T HAVE THE ARMY, HE DOESN'T HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO,OCCUPY-- THIS IS THE LARGEST COUNTRY IN EUROPE, 44 MILLION,PEOPLE.,HE DOES NOT HAVE AN ARMY CAPABLE OF DOING THAT.,THAT'S DIFFERENT BETWEEN HIM TODAY AND STALIN AFTER WORLD WAR,II.,HE HAD MILLIONS IN THE RED ARMY.,PUTIN DOES NOT.,TWO, HE DOESN'T HAVE AN ARGUMENT FOR DOING IT.,WHATEVER YOU THINK OF STALIN, STALIN WAS FIGHTING REAL,FASCISM, NOT THE FAKE FASCISM THAT PUTIN IS TALKING ABOUT.,SO WHEN THEY CLEARED OUT, THEY HAD PUPPETS, COMMUNISTS THAT,WOULD WORK WITH THEM IN THE THIS COUNTRY.,WHAT THEY WERE SUBJUGATED.,HE DOESN'T HAVE THAT.,MY PREDICTION FOR THE LONG RUN EYE DON'T KNOW WHEN OR IF KYIV,WILL FALL, OR THE OTHER CITIES, BUT I'M CERTAIN THE UKRAINIANS,WILL NEVER STOP FIGHTING EITHER WITH GUNS OR ACTS OF NONVIOLENCE,OF RESISTANCE.,THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE RUSSIANS LEAVE.,AND THAT WILL BE A DAILY PROGRAM, YOU KNOW, SONS THAT,WILL DIE.,THEY'LL BE COMING BACK IN BODY BAGS FOR MONTHS OR YEARS.,AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO UNDERMINE THE WAR AT HOME.,PLUS THE SANCTIONS.,THEY-- YOU KNOW, PUTIN'S TURNING RUSSIA INTO NORTH KOREA RIGHT,NOW, LITERALLY NORTH KOREA.,THEY'RE CUT OFF.,HE'S TRYING TO CUT THE BORDERS.,HE'S EVEN TALKING ABOUT CUTTING THE INTERNET.,AND YOU REPORTED ON ALL THE COMPANIES THAT HAVE LEFT.,OVER TIME, THAT WILL-- THAT FEELING LIKE WE'RE A PARIAH,STATE, WILL BEGIN TO HAUNT HIM.,AND I THINK THERE WILL BE GROWING OPPOSITION, BOTH WITHIN,THE ELITE AND WITHIN SOCIETY.,AND I LOOK PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE CIRCLE AROUND HIM, LOOKING,FOR DEFECTIONS, RIGHT.,LIKE THE HEADLINE OF THE CENTRAL BANK, RIGHT.,THAT'S SOMEBODY I KNOW PERSONALLY.,I CAN'T BELIEVE SHE SUPPORTS THIS WAR.,IF SOMEBODY LIKE THAT BEGINS TO LEAVE, THAT THEN OPENS WILL THE,DOOR FOR OTHER ELITES TO SAY, "OKAY, MAYBE IT'S TIME FOR US TO,QUIT THIS WAR.",>> Stephen: MICHAEL, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE.,>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.,>> Stephen: AMBASSADOR MICHAEL McFAUL, EVERYBODY!,WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK WITH BROADWAY STAR DENEE BENTON.

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