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"Thank Me After Becoming A Millionaire This Asset Will 30X In a Heartbeat" - Jim Rickards Goldthe fu

Smart Money

Updated on Jan 20,2023

"Thank Me After Becoming A Millionaire This Asset Will 30X In a Heartbeat" - Jim Rickards Gold

the future is very positive for gold,though you have the normal vectors you,know a supply is flat but has been for,six years demand is going up central,banks have flipped from net sellers to,net buyers that's a big deal,um in a retail institutional interest is,higher so that's good geopolitical,threats don't need to say a lot you know,from the U.S perspective Iran China,North Korea Venezuela Russia you name it,so that's the vector but the biggest,driver right now is what I referred to a,few minutes ago negative real rates,because gold as a form of money which is,how a viewer competes with other,interest rate competes with other,instruments treasury bills Etc well if,they have high yields and gold has no,yield you want the treasury bills but if,uh if interest rates have negative,yields and goals just flat gold looks,more attractive so that's the main,driver and that's going to continue,everyone's like well you know the gold,is up gold is down uh but one that so,what do you mean when you say that and,they're talking about the dollar price,of gold it's like okay so the dollar,price of gold is up or down that's,really a cross rate that's so different,than talking about the Euro US Dollar,exchange rate or Australian dollar US,Dollar exchange rate if you think of,gold as money and I do then the dollar,price of gold with gold measured by,weight not as another currency uh it is,another form of money but with gold,measure by the way it's a cross-exchange,rate,foreign,goes up I would say that what's really,happening is the dollar is going down in,other words I think of gold by weight,I'm interested you know do you have a uh,do you have a ton do you have uh 50,kilos do you have five ounces whatever,you have as an individual investor as a,bank I think of it by weight because,when someone said Gold's really going up,I said well no the dollar is going down,you need more dollars to purchase a,fixed quantity of gold which means the,dollar is worth less and when people say,Gold's really going down I say no the,dollar's worth more and you need fewer,dollars to purchase the quantity of gold,you know as when you when people talk,about price the first thing they do is,they're really talking about dollars you,know this is a euro price for gold but,the World Market is based on dollars,you're privileging the dollars the,numerator the numerator is your counting,system you know is it yards inches feet,whatever and if you put the dollar first,and say gold is in dollars it's going up,or down I think you have it backwards I,think you need to put gold first by,weight and then if it's worth more the,dollar is going down if it's worth less,the dollars going up,and so when you say,gold is going up let's say it went to,two thousand dollars an ounce oh the,price of gold went up you know I just,went up uh 10,um well did it or did the dollar go down,uh the way I would phrase it is you know,it used to be eighteen hundred dollars,to get an ounce of gold now it's two,thousand dollars to get an ounce of gold,or you know your dollar got you one,eighteen hundredth of an ounce today it,only gets you one two thousandth of an,ounce uh in other words gold didn't do,anything it's a metal it's an element,atomic number 79. what happened was the,the dollar got stronger so a stronger,dollar,is a lower dollar price for gold and a,weaker dollar is a higher dollar price,per gold so when people talk about gold,going up,what they're really talking about is the,dollar going down,we have new numbers regarding how much,gold Central bikes are buying 400 tons,in Q3 this year records and numbers we,haven't seen since the 80s yet we don't,know some of those mystery buyers,obviously the theories are that are that,are they are Russia and China now,China's non-transparent Russia is much,more transparent although Russia is,starting to be opaque a little bit,because they're in a war but uh you can,see the inflection point is 2010 so from,1970 to 2010 it's a long stretch 40,years central banks were net sellers it,didn't mean everybody sold everything,but Switzerland's down a thousand times,U.S was down a thousand tons after,losing a you know uh 8 000 tons or sorry,11 000 tons between 1950 and 1970. it,was down down 2010 was the year that,central banks became net buyers now it,doesn't mean every Central Bank was,buying gold it does mean that they were,selling a lot less and others were,buying more uh and some of the buyers,are Mexico Kazakhstan Philippines,Vietnam we we know China's big bar we,don't know exactly how much Russia was a,as a big buyer that is continuing now,the new players Iran a Renaissance,transparent but we know they're buying,gold turkey uh is buying a lot of gold,uh Japan had a bunch of gold all along,they never told anybody about one,literally one month the reserves went,from 600 tons to 900 tons well you know,the market you can't buy 300 tons in a,month not not one country or one order,but they had it all along but they,decided to reveal it put it on their

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Get CASH NOW! - Jim Rickards Gold Silver Price Outlook

Get CASH NOW! - Jim Rickards Gold Silver Price Outlook

so we haven't really seen the real the,market collapse stock market collapses I,would expect in association with a,severe recession has not happened yet,this is just going to play out it'll get,worse as the year goes on all right so,you're expecting a major correction in,stock markets I mean that that is my,expectation I have my own models and I,look at it closely but if you're,listening to Michael Berry uh Jeremy,Grantham uh you know Charlie Monterey,these people have been around and they,they run uh you know hundreds of,billions uh and uh they're saying the,same thing so Jeremy Grantham actually,did do a 100 Year time series and looked,at bubbles all over the world you know,in 1929 us,1989 Japan,2000.com stocks you know and and many,others,um and he said he's never seen anything,like it it's a triple,the greatest bubble of all time,times three in the sense that it's real,estate stocks and and other asset,classes so uh yeah I do uh that is my,view but it's it's shared by a number of,other analysts,1929 yeah everyone's like yeah October,uh I think 18th or 19th it was late,October 1929 the stock market fell 22 in,two days it wasn't one day it was it was,like 12 one day 11 the next day so 23,over two days but that wasn't the crash,I mean that was the beginning of the,crash this this Dow Jones fell 82,percent,from from top to bottom now it took two,years it bottomed in June 1932. uh,started in October 1929 so not quite,three years but uh that fell 82 and and,that happened so uh so yeah we're down,uh you know nasdaq's down uh I'll bounce,back a little bit in recent days down,close to 30 percent down the s p down,over 20 percent we're in Bear Market,territory but that that's just the,beginning that's not what a full,bear Market full you know Market,adjustment looks like in the face of the,kind of recession that I expect,this time last year around November 2021,you'll recall there were headlines you,know bear shelves empty shelves supply,chain breakdown you know Christmas will,be canceled et cetera and it was all,true you you went to the supermarket,didn't mean that every shelf was,completely bare like uh you know East,Germany in the 1950s but there you know,paper goods might not be there or maybe,your favorite kind of tomato sauce or or,you know chicken or whatever it was,there were some things there but a lot,of things weren't there and that got,worse and then of course because our gas,prices skyrocketed uh because of uh,basically because of a lot of bad policy,from uh from the states in terms of,Keystone Pipeline and a lot of other,factors that then you know got worse it,eased up a little bit in the summer but,it never went away this is a complex,system it was breaking down that was,very clear and now we're seeing a second,wave of that I don't want to overuse,metaphors but one metaphor is yeah but,very beautiful expensive bars and,somebody knocks it over and it breaks,into 5 000 pieces you can't put the bars,back together that you've got to go get,a new one and that's what's happened,with the supply chain the what I call,supply chain 10 1.0 from 1989 to 2019 is,broken uh there will be a new supply,chain there always are Supply chains,have been around since the Bronze Age if,not earlier but the new supply chain,what I call supply chain 2.0 will look,very different than the old supply chain,right now we're in an in-between period,where things don't work well again it,doesn't mean total chaos but you know,you still see shortages you still see,higher prices which are coming from,supply chain disruptions and these,things are not easy to fix but they can,be replaced and that's what I expect to,happen,the breakdown and collapse of the global,supply chain which preceded covet a lot,of people say well you know Kobe came,along of course and messed up the,sponsoring the supply chain was breaking,down before Kobe now of course covet,made it worse yes uh and the war in,Ukraine made it worse yet yes but this,really started with Trump's trade war in,2018. so um that like I said there's a,thread that runs through all these,things so uh not to throw out my hands,I'm not going to do that but,um when you ask me that I'm like I'm,thinking well you want to talk about,China Ukraine supply chain Biden they're,they're all they're all a big deal if,you know in terms of tragedy probably,uh the war in Ukraine is the most,important because it's highly highly,significant economically and,strategically but of course as a human,tragedy going with it you know Chinese,real estate includes okay there's some,hardship here and there but it's not,like uh people being killed in Maine but,forced into Refugee status and that is,uh part of what's going on in Ukraine so,that's a that's probably the biggest,single one but I wouldn't uh miss the,fact that all these things are going on,at once,if we're on the verge of a global,liquidity crisis as revealed by the euro,dollar Futures curve and the treasury,yield curb and you know negative swap,spreads and

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A MASSIVE Liquidity Crisis Is Coming In 2023, Here's How It Works - Jim Rickards Economic Prediction

A MASSIVE Liquidity Crisis Is Coming In 2023, Here's How It Works - Jim Rickards Economic Prediction

Robert you're talking about liquidity,crisis and gym dollar shortages what,what is happening in that world well uh,a lot sure,um people say well gee the fed you know,is at the height of the pandemic Panic,come back to 2020 the fed's balance,sheet was up to about nine trillion,dollars I had to get used to saying,trillion instead of billion but about,nine trillion dollars and it's come down,a little bit since then but uh people,say well wait a second How can there be,a dollar shortage or a liquidity crisis,when the FED printed nine trillion,dollars well the answer is you have to,understand how the money system works,and where real money creation comes from,and it does not come from the fed and,here's why the FED did print the money,that's that's real but the way they do,it they the FED buys bonds and treasury,notes from the primary dealers from the,big Banks and the you know they call up,and offer me a tenure note okay here's,the price done the golden stats will,send the 10-year note to the fed and the,FED pays for it with money that can,comes out of thin air so that is money,printing it's as simple as that but then,Goldman Sachs in my example takes the,money and gives it back to the FED,because the fed's a bank they deposited,at the FED in the form what they call,excess reserves and the FED pays,interest on excess reserves so the,Goldman's actually making money off it,the point is the money didn't go,anywhere the FED get created out of thin,air that much is true but the recipient,who sold the bonds gives it back to the,FED it sits on the fed's balance sheet,so the asset side you've got all these,treasury notes but the liability side,you've got all these deposits and it,just sits there and it doesn't do,anything so where's the real money that,powers the economy if there is you know,if it does at all where's that come from,it comes in the backs because the banks,can do the same thing when the bank,makes you a loan what do they do your,business you set up a checking account,they say okay here's a million dollar,loan they put the million dollars in in,your checking account where'd that money,come from,they just they just said you got the,money right and so they have an asset,which is a loan from you with note and,they got a liability which is your,deposit so Banks create money kind of,the same way the FED does except it's,supposed to be in private Commerce and,that money actually can go somewhere if,you're a business you got a payroll you,got to buy stuff or invest Stuff Etc but,that's there's not much of that going on,velocity is very low the turnover money,is low but uh the point is that doesn't,that hasn't really been going anywhere,now but here's the key nine trillion,dollars on the balance sheet maybe you,know five Six Trillion today it's a lot,of money but the notional value of,derivatives off balance sheet of the,banks is one quadrillion dollars and for,listeners who might not have heard the,word quadrillion before one quadrillion,is a thousand trillion so you're nine,trillion that the FED doesn't get you,very far if you have to support 1 000,trillion dollars worth of derivatives,and how does that work well the answer,is mostly the banks uh doing off balance,sheets swaps and swaptions and other,features and forwards and yeah we don't,have to go down the whole Litany of,names with either each other because,they're trading firms or with hedge,funds who want them for speculation or,hedging or solving wealth funds or other,institutions there's a whole network of,participants but these are the big boys,these are the the the the trillion,dollar institutions the you know,BlackRock and uh the temesek and the,southern wealth fund of Norway the these,are the the big players involved in this,market okay so you have a thousand,trillion dollars of derivatives off,balance sheet by the way you will not,see this looking at a bank balance sheet,you got to read the footnotes you gotta,know what you're looking at how is that,supported was supported with collateral,not 100 not even close but maybe one,percent two percent you got to put up,some margin money to be in the game but,then you can have a lot more lockdown,sheet okay so what's the best form of,collateral well it depends whether,you're in a liquidity crisis or not,whether people are feeling confident or,are worried whether they think things,are going to go great or start to,collapse so as things get more difficult,and that's the phase we're in right now,uh the um the the quality of collateral,has to go up you know so the banks are,now saying to each other I don't want,your mortgages I don't want your stupid,corporate bonds I don't even want,10-year treasury notes get me Bills,treasury bills these are short-term very,liquid one-year maturity or less a lot,of them are four week bills eight week,bills six month bills these are very,short-term very liquid they are the Best,Collateral there is and the banks are,saying you so that's what I want okay so,now your Barclays Ba

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NEW CRISIS That Will Affect EVERYBODY In 1-2 WEEKS | Prepare Now! (Jim Rickards)

NEW CRISIS That Will Affect EVERYBODY In 1-2 WEEKS | Prepare Now! (Jim Rickards)

I'm going to show you why Business,Insider warrants grocery stores could,run out of food in three days not three,weeks three days this is truly,terrifying stuff you're also going to,see why I'm concerned about Russia and,China potentially launching economic,attacks that could devastate regular,American citizens if you have any money,in the banks or in the stock market,these kinds of attacks could impact you,directly and in more ways than one when,you see what I'm predicting you'll,understand just how close to the edge,your economy is tutoring and I'll make,sure you see the three danger zones that,I'm worried about collapsing most,already the nation is at a Breaking,Point Forbes calls it the new era of,layoffs hiring freezes stocks and crypto,Market crashes inflation is crushing,Americans many economists are talking,about recession it's why Elon Musk,emailed employees saying he had a super,bad feeling regarding the economy and,why CNBC wrote Jamie Diamond says brace,yourself for an economic hurricane make,no mistake even if I'm wrong about the,worst case scenario the forces driving,this collapse have already begun,as far back as 2021 the U.S Chamber of,Commerce president Suzanne Clark told,CNN business the situation is real and,it's getting worse by the day and I've,made predictions on this scale before,and I've been right more times than I,can count,in 2008 I predicted the U.S housing,collapse no one believed me at the time,three weeks later Lehman Brothers went,Belly Up and markets crashed devastating,the retirement Savings of millions of,Americans then in 2016 the experts were,shocked when I predicted brexit the,media said it could never happen until I,was proved right then despite 99 of,polls showing the opposite I stood,outside Trump Tower the night before the,2016 election and declared Donald Trump,would be our next president,then in late 2021 several months before,the first shouts were fired in Ukraine I,alerted my readers this war wasn't,almost certainty but what I fear could,happen if I'm right about this economic,Super Collapse could be far worse and,while you'll never hear Joe Biden admit,that did you know his own Department of,Defense gave him 64 recommendations to,ensure economic and National Security,look all my research points to the,crisis arriving at your doorstep soon,whether you're ready or not most,Americans have no idea what's at stake,it's why I've dropped everything to put,together a total preparation package for,this economic Super Collapse and a,blueprint for Americans to follow to,protect themselves so you can see why,I'm predicting the end of the American,economy the way we know it in the next,six to 12 months like I said I've never,released this information to the public,before but today I'm giving you that,chance that's because as my fellow,Americans I believe you deserve to know,the truth about what I fear could happen,to the way we get our food our energy,and our medicine,these are the three danger zones under,threat of economic collapse I'm,concerned about most I'm going to talk,about each one now danger zone one,America's food supply according to the,cdc's website a disaster can easily,disrupt the food supply at any time,in the event of disaster or emergency,they advise Americans to have at least a,three-day supply of food but have you,ever asked yourself what happens if,multiple disasters hit our food supply,chain simultaneously just look at what's,happened so far this year Putin decided,to roll Russian tanks into Ukraine,igniting yet another disaster as the U.N,told BBC Russia's invasion of Ukraine,could soon cause a global food crisis,that may last for years that's because,practically a third of the world's wheat,exports come from Russia and Ukraine,it's why just a few weeks later,Bloomberg wrote U.S bread makers fear,soaring costs as turmoil engulfs that we,trade of course wheat is hardly the only,thing stores need to sell bread what,about the plastic or paper the bread is,wrapped in what about the ovens used to,bake the bread but about the truckers,who bring the bread to the store I,believe A disruption is coming that will,deprive Americans of basic food items,like bread eggs milk meat cheese and,more because of intense political,tensions in the country Rising prices,and intense work schedules to meet,delivery deadlines under the supply,chain crunch I believe it's very likely,that we will see a long-haul trucker,strike in the next six to 12 months I,believe that strike would last two weeks,or more and do you know what will happen,when those long whole truckers don't go,to work for a week Business Insider,reported that when that happens grocery,stores run out of food in three days,then what is the CDC going to tell you,they've updated the three-day emergency,guidelines on their website it will be,too late for you at that point,Danger Zone number two America's energy,Supply see even after a trucker strike,the only way the trucks can deliver our,food is if they have enough

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Fed's Secret Asset: Early Buyers Will Make Millions From This Asset - Jim Rickards Gold Silver Price

Fed's Secret Asset: Early Buyers Will Make Millions From This Asset - Jim Rickards Gold Silver Price

we have new numbers regarding how much,gold Central bikes are buying 400 tons,in Q3 this year records and numbers we,haven't seen since the 80s yet we don't,know some of those mystery buyers,obviously the theories are that are that,are they are Russia and China I'm,curious to get your thoughts on Central,Bank record buying of gold here and how,Russia and China fit into this puzzle,here,now China's non-transparent Russia is,much more transparent although Russia is,starting to be opaque a little bit,because they're in a war but uh you can,see the inflection point is 2010 so from,1970 to 2010 it's a long stretch 40,years central banks were net sellers it,didn't mean everybody sold everything,but Switzerland's down a thousand times,U.S was down a thousand tons after,losing uh you know uh 8 000 tons or,sorry 11 000 tons between 1950 and 1970.,it was down down 2010 was the year that,central banks became net buyers now it,doesn't mean every Central Bank was,buying gold it does mean that they were,selling a lot less and others were,buying more uh as some of the buyers are,Mexico Kazakhstan Philippines Vietnam we,know China's big buyer we don't know,exactly how much Russia was a as a big,buyer that is continuing now the new,players Iran Iran's on transparent but,we know they're buying gold turkey uh is,buying a lot of gold Japan had a bunch,of gold all along they never told,anybody about one little really one,month the reserves went from 600 tons to,900 tons well you know the market you,can't buy 300 tons in a month not not,one country or one order but they had it,all along but they decided to reveal it,put it on their balance sheet so uh,Americans don't seem to like gold I'm,not sure Canadians feel much differently,or others around the world but central,banks sure do and I think that tells you,something,inflation yeah prices go up so we,understand that or maybe put differently,the value of your money goes down you,don't get as much for your money same,thing but inflation is broadly speaking,has two costs one is called cost push,this comes from the supply side so,there's a shortage of oil up there and,we got a financial and economic work,going on between Russia uh and the,United States U.S really started but,uscu Canada Australia Japan versus,Russia let's obviously disrupting supply,chain cutting down energy Supply doesn't,the price of oil,Etc so that's coming from the supply,side the other sources is demand what's,called demand pull inflation which is,more psychological consumers are,thinking about choices and they say you,know I was thinking about buying a,refrigerator I was going to wait six,months but hey the price is going up I,better go buy it now before the price,goes up in the 70s 1970s we had both we,started with cost push from the Arab Oil,Embargo but it flipped into demand pull,in the late 70s and it just spent out of,control and Paul Walker had to crush it,today the inflation is coming from the,supply side some of the things we talked,about uh you know higher fuel costs,everything has to be transported so fuel,is part of everything it gets built into,the price of everything uh and there are,other there are other shortages in,bottlenecks and uh you know costs that,have to be taken up by manufacturers and,Distributors the FED can't drill for oil,the FED Camp plant wheat the FED can't,make semiconductors so they can't do,anything about this and the supply,chains are breaking down they were,breaking down before the war in Ukraine,but Ukraine has made it worse the FED,can't do anything about Cost Plus they,can't do anything about the price of oil,but they're looking at the demand side,you know saying hey if this Supply thing,goes on long enough eventually the,psychology will change and we'll get,demand pull uh and behavioral and that,is really hard to to change so what,they're trying to do they know they,can't change the supply side but they're,trying to squash the demand side before,it gets out of control,and this is the thing that the markets,and investors are not ready for they,inflation is going to come down fast,there's even some danger of deflation,and a major U.S recession in 2000 in,2023 and and no one's ready for that I,mean people talk about recession but,it's going to be worse than they think,and they wrap up the printing press,Again Jim,yes but it doesn't work you know nine,trillion dollars of QE didn't do any,good I mean how does the FED do QE they,buy bonds and banks give the money to,the banks the banks give it back to the,FED as experts through service what does,that do for the economy nothing zero,rates you know again it doesn't it,doesn't work they don't have the tools,they're preparing for what we're talking,about which is uh a world where uh the,the dollar as a reserve currency will,not be deposed overnight but as a,payment currency there's a difference,between Reserve currency in the payment,currency anything can be a payment,guarantee if I want to pay you with,baseball cards and bottle c

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Jim Rickards | This Asset Will 30X In a Heartbeat .

Jim Rickards | This Asset Will 30X In a Heartbeat .

the future is very positive for gold,though you have the normal vectors you,know a supply is flat but has been for,six years demand is going up central,banks have flipped from net sellers to,net buyers that's a big deal,um in a retail institutional interest is,higher so that's good geopolitical,threats don't need to say a lot you know,from the U.S perspective Iran China,North Korea Venezuela Russia you name it,so that's the vector but the biggest,driver right now is what I referred to a,few minutes ago negative real rates,because gold as a form of money which is,how a viewer competes with other,interest rate competes with other,instruments treasury bills Etc well if,they have high yields and gold has no,yield you want the treasury bills but if,uh if interest rates have negative,yields and goals just flat gold looks,more attractive so that's the main,driver and that's going to continue,everyone's like well you know the gold,is up gold is down uh but one that so,what do you mean when you say that and,they're talking about the dollar price,of gold it's like okay so the dollar,price of gold is up or down that's,really a cross rate that's so different,than talking about the Euro US Dollar,exchange rate or Australian dollar US,Dollar exchange rate if you think of,gold as money and I do then the dollar,price of gold with gold measured by,weight not as another currency uh it is,another form of money but with gold,measure by the way it's a cross-exchange,rate,foreign,goes up I would say that what's really,happening is the dollar is going down in,other words I think of gold by weight,I'm interested you know do you have a uh,do you have a ton do you have uh 50,kilos do you have five ounces whatever,you have as an individual investor as a,bank I think of it by weight because,when someone said Gold's really going up,I said well no the dollar is going down,you need more dollars to purchase a,fixed quantity of gold which means the,dollar is worth less and when people say,Gold's really going down I say no the,dollar's worth more and you need fewer,dollars to purchase the quantity of gold,you know as when you when people talk,about price the first thing they do is,they're really talking about dollars you,know this is a euro price for gold but,the World Market is based on dollars,you're privileging the dollars the,numerator the numerator is your counting,system you know is it yards inches feet,whatever and if you put the dollar first,and say gold is in dollars it's going up,or down I think you have it backwards I,think you need to put gold first by,weight and then if it's worth more the,dollar is going down if it's worth less,the dollars going up,and so when you say,gold is going up let's say it went to,two thousand dollars an ounce oh the,price of gold went up you know I just,went up uh 10,um well did it or did the dollar go down,uh the way I would phrase it is you know,it used to be eighteen hundred dollars,to get an ounce of gold now it's two,thousand dollars to get an ounce of gold,or you know your dollar got you one,eighteen hundredth of an ounce today it,only gets you one two thousandth of an,ounce uh in other words gold didn't do,anything it's a metal it's an element,atomic number 79. what happened was the,the dollar got stronger so a stronger,dollar,is a lower dollar price for gold and a,weaker dollar is a higher dollar price,per gold so when people talk about gold,going up,what they're really talking about is the,dollar going down,we have new numbers regarding how much,gold Central bikes are buying 400 tons,in Q3 this year records and numbers we,haven't seen since the 80s yet we don't,know some of those mystery buyers,obviously the theories are that are that,are they are Russia and China now,China's non-transparent Russia is much,more transparent although Russia is,starting to be opaque a little bit,because they're in a war but uh you can,see the inflection point is 2010 so from,1970 to 2010 it's a long stretch 40,years central banks were net sellers it,didn't mean everybody sold everything,but Switzerland's down a thousand times,U.S was down a thousand tons after,losing a you know uh 8 000 tons or sorry,11 000 tons between 1950 and 1970. it,was down down 2010 was the year that,central banks became net buyers now it,doesn't mean every Central Bank was,buying gold it does mean that they were,selling a lot less and others were,buying more uh and some of the buyers,are Mexico Kazakhstan Philippines,Vietnam we we know China's big bar we,don't know exactly how much Russia was a,as a big buyer that is continuing now,the new players Iran a Renaissance,transparent but we know they're buying,gold turkey uh is buying a lot of gold,uh Japan had a bunch of gold all along,they never told anybody about one,literally one month the reserves went,from 600 tons to 900 tons well you know,the market you can't buy 300 tons in a,month not not one country or one order,but they had it all along but they,decided to reveal it put it on their

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The Supply Chain Has Collapse WORSE Than You Think.....Jim Rickards

The Supply Chain Has Collapse WORSE Than You Think.....Jim Rickards

the U.S and Brazil are the two largest,exporters to soybeans China is the,world's largest importer of soybeans,China was buying all their soybeans from,the United States just as a way to kind,of make it make it up a little bit like,well we don't want we got to buy the,soybeans anyway why not buy them from,the U.S to keep the U.S China trade,deficit under control so it doesn't,become too politically toxic,um well as soon as we jump through on,the tariffs China retaliated by moving,their soybean uh orders to Brazil,stopped by U.S soybeans well,that's not a phone call I mean you're,talking about vessels Port facilities uh,agriculture you know trucks how do you,get the soybeans to the ports how many,do you grow where's the fertilizer,coming from you know etc etc and all,those parties you know the shippers the,cargo the insurance companies and so,many people and Bob Banks letters of,credit it's just a lot involved,um they don't like short-term,relationships they say okay I'll do it I,want a five-year contract and China said,okay so they reconfigured all those,Transportation Lanes to get the soybeans,from Brazil all of a sudden you're a U.S,soybean grower is it what I do well we,started selling them to the Netherlands,because the Netherlands need soybeans,too so now but now instead of shipping,them from like port of LA to Ningbo and,near Shanghai we're shipping them from,Port of Houston to I don't know uh,France and Marseille or someplace uh,we're Rotterdam so the point being,um you completely scrambled all these uh,supply chain relationships I talked to,the guy who you know look this is a,worldwide Endeavor but he was probably,the single most responsible individual,for all the significant developments in,the supply chain in the last 30 years,and he said to me said Jim you have to,understand it took us 30 years to build,it we blew it up in three years it's not,going to come back overnight it's going,to take 10 years or more to rebuild it,and what I talk about in the book is,supply chain 1.0 which is 1989 to 2019,and then supply chain 2.0 which,kind of starts now but it's going to go,indefinitely because it's going to take,a long time to put this together it's uh,you know it's like dropping a buzz and,it breaks in a thousand pieces you can't,put it back together you got to go buy a,new box and that's what's going on with,the supply chain there will be a supply,chain there always is but the new supply,chain will look very different from what,we've just gone through because the,whole the whole 30 years of period I'm,describing was built on efficiency you,know like lower cost lower cost lower,cost so it's kind of the Walmart model,so yeah just in time inventory everyone,knows about that but there's something,called cross docking that's where a,truck pulls up at a warehouse and you,unload it instead of putting the stuff,in the warehouse you move it to another,truck that then goes to a destination,the stuff never goes in the warehouse,inventories are very expensive they're,they're they're they're costly to,finance you got to move this stuff,around it's called picking you know pick,the stuff off the shelf here I used to,drive with forklift so I know a little,bit about it uh you know and put it on a,truck used to unlock trucks too so so,you know hey I've got seven and,suppliers why don't I cut it down to,three and do bigger contracts with each,one and get lower unit costs I've got,five Transportation Lanes why don't I,cut that down to two get everything to,you know Los Angeles and Seattle as the,case may be you know Etc and they did it,for three and they got cost slower you,know and and Walmart and Amazon were the,champions of this but everyone else was,doing it but they missed something what,they missed was that their while they,were getting those unit costs lower for,consumers they there were hidden costs,and the main hidden cost was you were,creating greater Frailty this whole,system was subject to a massive massive,breakdown so uh you know what happens if,you have two suppliers and they both go,on strike what happens if you have one,port of entry and it's backlogged what,happens if you've got uh Quest docking,and warehouses there aren't enough,trucks there's a 80 or 80 000 we need 80,000 drivers 80 000 drivers I wish they'd,hire them instead of these IRS agents,but the point being,um it is break taking down all across,the board now it cannot be put back,together yes but the biggest difference,between 2.0 and 1.0 this goes by,different names uh you know Johnny Allen,called it friend Shoring and macron,called it a constellation of Nations uh,Club if you will so you'll still have,trading partners you'll still have,Outsourcing you'll still have,transportation Lanes but it'll be,members only it'll be basically,Democratic kind of liberal republics,Western Europe uh you know the EU of,course U.S Canada Australia New Zealand,Japan India I would expect to be,included friendly Nations but China's,out we're decoupling from them

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"We've been in a Depression since 2008" w/ Jim Rickards - EP 72, Part 2 TWS

"We've been in a Depression since 2008" w/ Jim Rickards - EP 72, Part 2 TWS

now economists don't like the d word the,the word depression because it it,doesn't have a rigorous,mathematical definition you can't plug,it into a closed form equation it works,exactly the way i described and by the,way my source on that is john maynard,keynes uh so if it was good enough for,him is good enough for me but that's how,he described,a depression so um i would say we're in,a depression have been since 2007 that,even periods of growth are below well,below trend well below potential um a,lot of wealth trillions of dollars of,wealth being left on the table we're in,a technical recession right now we'll,see if it gets worse my expectation is,it will but but that remains to be seen,so um,uh but you know the white house would,say you know we haven't had a depression,since the 1940s and uh uh and we're not,in a reception so you know pick your uh,uh pick your experts but uh the the,white house and government don't have a,very good track record of this,welcome back to the wigan sessions i'm,your host addison wiggin uh i have with,me again,uh jim rickards,author of currency wars and,the death of money among other books uh,we were talking about,uh the rise and fall of the bretton,woods exchange rate system and then we,were rudely interrupted by an internet,outage uh,and so we pick up today with part two,uh jim,was bringing us current to uh to today,the market today um,and uh what i'm going to ask jim welcome,back first of all thank you matthew,addison yeah,the first thing i want to ask is we we,had a rather lively discussion about the,difference between recession depression,and financial crisis,uh which i thought was being recorded,but ended up not being so i'd like you,to pick it up there,and and answer the question why does the,dollar rally,during uh financial payments well uh,a great compound question so let me uh,separate a little bit we'll kind of,unpack it and and look at all those,things uh quickly so the,difference between a recession and a,depression this is not well understood,recession is very numeric there is a,referee something called the national,bureau of economic research based in,cambridge massachusetts it's a panel i,believe nine you know kind of phd level,economist,um,and they uh,they decide when a recession started and,when it's over and therefore when the,recovery began et cetera they're not an,official body they're not a i mean,they're organized but it's not a,government body it's a private body the,government kind of goes along with what,they're saying but even when they call,it it doesn't,you know it's their opinion and people,are guided by that but just to be clear,they're not it's not that it's not a,government agency making these decisions,their rule of thumb,is two consecutive quarters of declining,gdp,that's the rule of thumb now there's,more to it they look at unemployment,they look at uh,you know,incomes they look at a number of other,factors,but based on the rule of thumb we're,already in a recession the u.s had,declining gdp in the first quarter of,2022. we had declining gdp in the second,quarter of 2022 that was just revised uh,literally today but um you know the the,loss was not as big but it's still a,loss still on the red so we've had the,two consecutive quarters of declining,gdp through at this point several,revisions by the us government so,based on the rule of thumb we're in a,recession now uh you know janet yellen,who doesn't know much about this in the,white house and others are saying well,we're not in a recession they're either,changing the definition,or if you want to be a little technical,about it the national bureau of economic,research hasn't said so but that's not,unusual what's normal is that the,national bureau of economic research can,wait,three months six months sometimes a year,before they,call the balls and strikes and for that,matter it's not unusual that the,recession's over before they tell you it,started so i don't expect to hear from,the national bureau of economic research,until,late this year,uh maybe early next year and oh by the,way wouldn't it be interesting if they,waited until after the election uh so,don't underestimate the political twists,and all this i mean that's definitely,there so i'm not waiting for them i've,seen the two consecutive quarters,i believe it's getting worse uh the,atlanta fed uh federal reserve bank of,atlanta has a tracker um,they're showing the the,third quarter of 2822 we're in the third,quarter won't be over until the end of,september they're showing that in,positive territory but it's been,trending down from about two percent to,one point nine percent to 1.6 etc that's,also not unusual they have a very,interesting statistical method i give,them a lot of credit but what they do,everyone on wall street takes the data,yeah the gdp data comes in you know some,of it weekly monthly quarterly whatever,and you got to get all the data,before you make a final call,um so what wall street does they take,the data they've got a

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