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Dave Wasserman: ‘The Odds Of A Democratic Senate Are Much Higher Than They Were 3 Months Ago’joining
Updated on Jan 13,2023
Dave Wasserman: ‘The Odds Of A Democratic Senate Are Much Higher Than They Were 3 Months Ago’
joining us now is dave wasserman he's,the,cook political report senior house,editor dave it's nice to see a lot of,folks tuning in to everything you post,on twitter to get a sense of where,things stand day in day out so let's,give folks a progress report as we've,now come back from the holiday weekend,and we head into these 60 plus days,63 to be exact i guess nine weeks out,from the midterms what are the chances,of fetterman flipping that senate seat,you changed it from from toss-up to lean,democrat,well peter they're very good and at the,same time i don't believe this race is,over i don't buy that jon vetterman has,a double-digit lead in a state that was,razor thin in the 2016 and 2020,presidential elections i'm more in line,with that susquehanna poll that had john,fetterman up by just five points and i,do think there is,a danger over the next couple months,that the longer that john fetterman is,unable to debate and those close to him,say he has a really hard time,understanding speech,that the focus does shift more on to his,health and his ability to to perform the,job of senator and that could make the,race closer in the home stretch i want,to say how impressed i am by you,speaking through your light going out,and flipping it back on mid-sentence,without a without a flinch let me ask,you that in big broad terms if this,election were held today would democrats,hold their senate majority where do you,see things right now key races from,georgia to wisconsin a lot of folks are,keeping eyes on,yeah i think it really will at this,point come down to georgia arizona,wisconsin pennsylvania perhaps new,hampshire and,if republicans want to win the majority,they've got to win the bulk of those,races democrats at this point,could hang on to a 50 50 majority in,which they pick up pennsylvania and,perhaps lose nevada which is,perhaps republicans most unblemished,pickup opportunity to date but it's,going to be a close call and uh and the,odds of a democratic senate are much,higher than they were three months ago,day let me ask you you mentioned new,hampshire obviously the republicans,haven't picked their senate choice in,that state yet that can have a big,impact on whether that race is really,competitive a lot of people believe or,whether it's you know leaning much,further democratic why,yeah well the primary is everything in,new hampshire if if republican chuck,morse who has,who is a more conventional conservative,wins the primary then republicans are,still very much in the game if don,baldock who's running a more manga style,campaign and has been disparaged by the,state's popular republican moderate,governor chris sununu wins the,nomination it becomes a much trickier,proposition for uh for republicans and,keep in mind that these races will,impact the house down ballot in,pennsylvania there are three races we,see,as highly competitive where democrats,are hoping that jon fetterman's,coattails will allow them to hang on in,new hampshire both of the state's,congressional districts are highly,competitive and so this is going to have,a trickle-down effect on whether,republicans are able to pick up the five,seats they need to win the house they're,probably going to do so at this point,but not by the margins we would have,expected three months ago let me ask you,about the house quickly the the cook,political report just moved five more,races in democrats direction in recent,days initially i think you guys had it,like 20 to 30 in favor of republicans,now the numbers are closer to 10 to 15,maybe even 10 uh to 20 18 is the sweet,spot that a lot of republicans claim,they think they can still accomplish how,likely are democrats to hold on to their,majority there,well the odds aren't great for democrats,the way we see it now there are 213,races that at least lean towards,republicans 190 races that at least lean,towards democrats that leaves 32,toss-ups so republicans only need to win,five of those 32 toss-ups to win the,majority they have a lot of roots to do,so because of redistricting which skews,the map in their favor,but democrats,might have a 20 to 25 percent chance at,the rate things are going,this is why we watch and it's why folks,vote we'll be keeping a close eye over,these waning weeks to the midterms dave,wasserman thanks for your expertise,always appreciate your being here,do,you
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