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Dave Wasserman: ‘The Odds Of A Democratic Senate Are Much Higher Than They Were 3 Months Ago’joining

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Updated on Jan 13,2023

Dave Wasserman: ‘The Odds Of A Democratic Senate Are Much Higher Than They Were 3 Months Ago’

joining us now is dave wasserman he's,the,cook political report senior house,editor dave it's nice to see a lot of,folks tuning in to everything you post,on twitter to get a sense of where,things stand day in day out so let's,give folks a progress report as we've,now come back from the holiday weekend,and we head into these 60 plus days,63 to be exact i guess nine weeks out,from the midterms what are the chances,of fetterman flipping that senate seat,you changed it from from toss-up to lean,democrat,well peter they're very good and at the,same time i don't believe this race is,over i don't buy that jon vetterman has,a double-digit lead in a state that was,razor thin in the 2016 and 2020,presidential elections i'm more in line,with that susquehanna poll that had john,fetterman up by just five points and i,do think there is,a danger over the next couple months,that the longer that john fetterman is,unable to debate and those close to him,say he has a really hard time,understanding speech,that the focus does shift more on to his,health and his ability to to perform the,job of senator and that could make the,race closer in the home stretch i want,to say how impressed i am by you,speaking through your light going out,and flipping it back on mid-sentence,without a without a flinch let me ask,you that in big broad terms if this,election were held today would democrats,hold their senate majority where do you,see things right now key races from,georgia to wisconsin a lot of folks are,keeping eyes on,yeah i think it really will at this,point come down to georgia arizona,wisconsin pennsylvania perhaps new,hampshire and,if republicans want to win the majority,they've got to win the bulk of those,races democrats at this point,could hang on to a 50 50 majority in,which they pick up pennsylvania and,perhaps lose nevada which is,perhaps republicans most unblemished,pickup opportunity to date but it's,going to be a close call and uh and the,odds of a democratic senate are much,higher than they were three months ago,day let me ask you you mentioned new,hampshire obviously the republicans,haven't picked their senate choice in,that state yet that can have a big,impact on whether that race is really,competitive a lot of people believe or,whether it's you know leaning much,further democratic why,yeah well the primary is everything in,new hampshire if if republican chuck,morse who has,who is a more conventional conservative,wins the primary then republicans are,still very much in the game if don,baldock who's running a more manga style,campaign and has been disparaged by the,state's popular republican moderate,governor chris sununu wins the,nomination it becomes a much trickier,proposition for uh for republicans and,keep in mind that these races will,impact the house down ballot in,pennsylvania there are three races we,see,as highly competitive where democrats,are hoping that jon fetterman's,coattails will allow them to hang on in,new hampshire both of the state's,congressional districts are highly,competitive and so this is going to have,a trickle-down effect on whether,republicans are able to pick up the five,seats they need to win the house they're,probably going to do so at this point,but not by the margins we would have,expected three months ago let me ask you,about the house quickly the the cook,political report just moved five more,races in democrats direction in recent,days initially i think you guys had it,like 20 to 30 in favor of republicans,now the numbers are closer to 10 to 15,maybe even 10 uh to 20 18 is the sweet,spot that a lot of republicans claim,they think they can still accomplish how,likely are democrats to hold on to their,majority there,well the odds aren't great for democrats,the way we see it now there are 213,races that at least lean towards,republicans 190 races that at least lean,towards democrats that leaves 32,toss-ups so republicans only need to win,five of those 32 toss-ups to win the,majority they have a lot of roots to do,so because of redistricting which skews,the map in their favor,but democrats,might have a 20 to 25 percent chance at,the rate things are going,this is why we watch and it's why folks,vote we'll be keeping a close eye over,these waning weeks to the midterms dave,wasserman thanks for your expertise,always appreciate your being here,do,you

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David Wasserman: ‘The Laws Of Political Gravity Are Working In Republicans’ Favor’

David Wasserman: ‘The Laws Of Political Gravity Are Working In Republicans’ Favor’

and joining us now is cook political,reports senior editor David Wasserman,David you are the guru of the House,Seats have you seen enough,well Andrea what today comes back to is,that Democrats never really started out,with a mandate to begin with and in 2020,Joe Biden took on a historically,unpopular president Trump had a 53,disapproval rating and yet Joe Biden,only carried Wisconsin Arizona Georgia,Nevada and Pennsylvania by less than two,and a half percent he only won the,median house district by 2.1 percent and,of course now President Biden is the one,with a 53 disapproval rating and so the,laws of political gravity are working in,Republicans favor and I think the,likeliest outcome is that Republicans,pick up between 15 and 30 House Seats,and Democrats are hanging on for dear,life in the Senate there's an excellent,chance that Republicans hold,Pennsylvania and break through in one of,Nevada Arizona and Georgia today,and what yeah what are you seeing let's,talk a little bit more about the Senate,where do you see Democrats having the,best shot to hold on,well I think their root is still in,Arizona and Georgia and and Pennsylvania,they've got to hold on to three of of,the four core States Nevada being the,fourth I still think Nevada is the,likeliest to go Republican out of that,Bunch but Pennsylvania you know has has,taken a turn towards Dr Oz he has made,the race much less about John fetterman,or much less about himself and much more,about John fetterman in the past month,and rebranded himself as a moderate in,the suburbs of Pennsylvania and that's,paid dividends and what about the,possibility that Josh Shapiro who's,running a very strong gubernatorial race,against a real a really extreme,Republican election denier January 6th,protester all the rest joined the,Insurrection From the Mob,and the anti-semitic extreme language,that's come from mastriano Doug,mastriano what about the fact that Josh,Shapiro as,um you know very far ahead in that race,the Democrat could pull fettermen,through if there aren't too many ticket,splitters,well I think there will be quite a few,ticket Splitters particularly in those,suburbs and Josh Shapiro has shown you,know a textbook example of how you do,confront an election denier as a,Democrat Katie Hobbs I think in Arizona,has shown what not to do in kind of,shying away from confronting Carrie Lake,whereas Josh Shapiro has confronted Doug,mastriano quite forcefully and look,early on Election night I think we'll,get some important tea leaves in,Virginia where we have two highly,competitive house races in New Hampshire,in the first congressional district in,Indiana's first district and I'm what,I'm going to be paying attention to,early on on Election night is whether,Republicans are headed for a true,majority or or just a Marjorie I was,talking with Kevin McCarthy yesterday,and he wants more than 25 seats anything,less than 15 and he'll have a much,harder time circumventing the far right,Fringe of his conference,David Wasserman thank you so much

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Virginia Shaping Up To Be Best Bellwether Early On Election Night, Says Analyst

Virginia Shaping Up To Be Best Bellwether Early On Election Night, Says Analyst

all right look joining us now U.S great,a house editor of the nonpartisan cook,political report Dave Wasserman Dave uh,you're taking a look at a couple of key,races but Virginia uh where you've got,Liz Cheney endorsing Abigail spanberger,what are you seeing in that race how,tight is it,it's a tight race and look redistricting,is a big theme of 2022 because there are,a few Democratic incumbents including,some pretty big names who are in,districts that are mostly unfamiliar to,them Abigail spanberger's district is,about three quarters new to her and so,is the chairman of the D Triple C Sean,Patrick Maloney so is Katie Porter's,District out in Orange County California,and Abigail spanberger caught a break in,the Republican primary when Republicans,nominated yesly Vega who is a Ted Cruz,endorsed Freedom caucus a daughter of,Salvador and immigrants Prince William,County supervisor but uh spambergers,really had the claw for this it's it's,remained very close to fight spanberger,absolutely obliterating Vega on the DC,Airwaves for her stance uh her rigid,stance on abortion and I would still,pick spanberger to win very narrowly but,we may not know until uh Prince William,County accounts its mail ballots pretty,late so so Dave I remember back in 2018,uh beginning of the night it looked like,Republicans were going to win the house,but then you started to see things break,in Virginia and over the next several,days there was one Democratic race in,California after another that they,seemed to win by about 14 votes and,never seen anything like it before but,Democrats won by the barest of margin,and all of these California races are we,going to be looking closely at Virginia,and California again four years later to,determine who's going to have control of,the house,yeah I think Virginia is going to be the,best Bell whether early on Election,night because we've got Elaine Lauria in,the second district who has staked her,re-election race on Democracy issues,she's been rare among Democrats in that,regard she has highlighted her service,on the January 6th committee she has,attacked a state senator uh Jen Higgins,the Republican nominee for dodging,questions about whether Joe Biden won,the 2020 election fairly and yet it's,been difficult for alluria to paint,kagan's as an extremist because Higgins,is a nurse practitioner a former Navy,pilot who is a Suburban mom and and so I,would expect kiggins to have the narrow,Edge in that race redistricting made,that seat a touch redder and if Loria,hangs on early on Election night that,would be a terrific sign for Democrats,David Richard Haas Virginia is a state,with a lot of military presence has the,issue of defense spending come up,virtually every expert I know in the,field looks at the world looks at China,looks at Russia and the rest and says,the United States needs to start,spending considerably more on defense,than it currently does has that come up,at all and is there any popular support,for that idea,yes look these are districts that are,full of military installations and both,spanberger and luria have touted their,ability to bring federal dollars back to,the district that's part of the reason,why they're still in the hunt even,though this is a pretty pro-republican,environment I suspect we're gonna only,see bigger fights in 2023 if Republicans,take control over AIDS Ukraine and that,could come down more along partisan,lines than it has this past year,David it's Robert Gibbs uh good morning,we were talking a little earlier of the,fog of War all this data early vote,numbers and and whatnot boil it all down,for us what do you think when the dust,settles how does house control look what,what is the final tally in your,estimation,I don't think the bottom has complete,for house Democrats it's more a story in,the last few weeks where we've seen the,Senate Outlook move a notch towards,where the house already was and in the,last NBC poll the final one Democrats,were tied with Republicans on voting,enthusiasm the problem for Democrats is,still independent voters and the fact,that by 66 to 28,cost of living is more important to,their vote Choice than abortion just 28,percent of them approve of President,Biden's handling of the economy and so I,think on late deciders Republicans have,a little bit more upside we're looking,at potentially a republican gain between,15 and 25 seats even as Republicans,might gain the one seat they need to win,control of the Senate,Dave if we want our viewers to be smart,on Election night and be looking for,those early Trends you mentioned those,Virginia races earlier but between the 7,PM closings and the 8 PM closings you've,also got New Hampshire and Indiana what,are you looking at there for example,yeah I'll be looking at Indiana's First,District which is Gary and Hammond this,seat hasn't been in play in a very long,time but Democrat Frank mervan is a,freshman a Democrat running against,Jennifer Ruth Breen who is one of just,over 100 black female commercial air

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The Cook Report's Dave Wasserman on 'Top Line'

The Cook Report's Dave Wasserman on 'Top Line'

Saturday Night Live had some fun with,New Year's wishes from some prominent,Democrats take a look at what they did,the other night,New Year's longings and for political,junkies there is no greater day maybe in,the decade than the day we have today it,is real poor shimaa today we learn a lot,about the decennial census and we're,joined by one of the experts on the,subject david wasserman from the cook,political reporter tracks House races,this basically aligned with what we,expected any first of all top line,surprise is that you see in the,reapportionment process well in the,reapportionment process which precedes,redistricting by the way this is like,NCAA selection son that's right this is,a bragging rights right these are the,brackets right but Texas is expected is,the big winner here at standing for,seats Florida's gaining two seats you,work in Ohio or the big losers losing,two seats each and that's pretty much on,target with the expectations we had,going into this process but first,there's reapportion Minh and then,redistricting will consume right our,entire house coverage for the next year,and a half in terms of which parties are,going to try and carve seat for,themselves which parties are going to,try and carve seats out of the other,party's column and Republicans are the,ones with the advantage going into that,process yeah as we were looking at it it,looks like what seven of the eight,states that are picking up seats have,Republican governors that's got to make,a big difference absolutely and it's not,just governor's the actual legislators,in each state who are going to be,drawing the lines while there were 680,new Republican legislators in the,incoming class of 2010 who are going to,be taking office and drawing these lines,when the census numbers that are,detailed and used for this processor,released in 2011 so Republicans actually,have legislative and gubernatorial,control over the line drawing process,and redrawing process in 195,congressional districts compared to just,49 districts for Democrats to put that,in some perspective it was almost the,opposite as recently as 20 years ago,what do I want to focus on Texas is the,big winner here they're adding four,seats now no secret this is mostly,because of Hispanic population growth in,that state but Republicans who tend to,tend not to be Hispanic voters in that,state they control all the levers of,power in Texas is there a way that they,end up drawing this map that kind of,minimize,is where the population growth is well,that's the question and this is why,redistricting a stud is such a sticky,legal issue it's a very complex issue,that states and courts are going to be,litigating for the next year and perhaps,longer as we saw in Texas last time,around we saw an exodus of state,legislators to Oklahoma right over that,process so minority representation is,going to be issue number one in the,state in states like Texas where a lot,of that population growth has been from,Hispanic residents we're likely going to,see a new Hispanic majority district one,way or the other in each of Dallas in,South Texas and so it's not so clear-cut,even in a state like Texas where,Republicans control all the levers of,power it still could be kind of an even,gain for both Democrats and Republicans,given those Voting Rights Act measures,and in our last 20 seconds here this is,a map that broadly for 2012 would seem,to favor republicans it's like you're,just taking a decent-size state and,throwing into the republican column when,you talk about the texas is adding seats,utah arizona right absolutely the other,big implication is obviously for the,electoral college and texas gaining four,seats is the equivalent of perhaps,Republicans picking up the state of New,Hampshire right if they're able to hold,on to tear it in the other thousand,twelve presidential election obviously,you talk just like that apps for that,will help Dave Wasserman cook Political,Report census day we love it you're on,top line thanks for being here picture,twitter.com slash Rick Klein twitter.com,/ john carl keep the sense of sweets,coming

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Wasserman: ‘It’s Now Going To Take A Miracle’ To Get Dems ‘Back In Contention’

Wasserman: ‘It’s Now Going To Take A Miracle’ To Get Dems ‘Back In Contention’

now joining us is NBC News senior,political editor Mark Murray and cook,political report house prognosticator,Dave Wasserman,first Dave still to you I just want to,get some of these numbers straight we've,been reporting our just our decision,desk that 18 races are still not called,for you said that Democrats need a,miracle to hold on to the chamber so,you've drilled down on these individual,house races tell us where you see the,the best Advantage I guess for the,Republicans in the remaining house,districts,yeah Andrea Democrats have needed to run,the table on the remaining outstanding,very close races in order to win 218,seats and that path has involved three,critical seats in Arizona's first,district Arizona sixth district and,California's 41st District and last,night the counts weren't what Democrats,needed in those three seats and while,NBC News has not called those races it's,now going to take a miracle or another,development in another race where,Democrats are trailing in order to to,get them back in contention the most,likely result here is that Republicans,end up with somewhere along about around,219 220 or 221 seats which is pretty,astonishing considering that Republicans,are currently on track to win about four,percent more votes than Democrats,nationally,and Mark let's talk about what we've,learned from for instance what's,happened out in Maricopa County what's,left out there in terms of how the vote,keeps you know coming in despite all of,what has been said by Donald Trump and,other election deniers and now beginning,to be also Kelly Ward who's falling,behind about uh you know Katie Bob the,Hobbs but for the Governor's race,maroponic Maricopa County has some of,the best vote counting processes because,of past problems yeah Andrea they have a,whole lot of practice and we have a,whole lot of practice watching the,Arizona returns we saw this in 2018,we're starting in 2020 and we're singing,again in 2022. and what ends up going on,is there's this ping pong of like where,the votes are in particular counties and,even in counties like Maricopa and,that's the Phoenix area you end up,having Republican pockets and Democratic,pockets and then different kind of vote,methods on some are stronger for,republicans and Democrats last night was,supposed to be a really good batch of,votes for Kerry Lake the Republican,running and she ended up winning them,but not by the margins that you need to,be able to have and with Katie Hobbs now,having a 26 000 vote margin for Kerry,Lake to be able to win the remaining,returns have to be not only good but,certainly great and the Hobbes campaign,after the latest batch of ballots that,came out from Maricopa County ended up,declaring her as the unequivocal,front-runner or favorite to be able to,win now again it's important to note,that NBC is only referred to this race,as too close to call but certainly it,does seem to be that Katie Hobbs the,Democratic nominees in the driver's seat,and Dave Wasserman let's go to Colorado,where Lauren Volbert looks like she's,ahead is she ahead and that's still,undecided you also have an Upstate New,York race that's not decided but most of,the undecided or seats are in California,which has always been slow,right and in Colorado's Third District,Lauren bogert is ahead by over 1100,votes and there are some remaining votes,to to be counted perhaps overseas or,provisional ballots but she is the,favorite in in this vote count at the,moment and you know what's striking is,that when Republicans are winning the,vote nationally but only winning a,minuscule are on track to win a,minuscule majority in the house that's a,sign that something's gone terribly,wrong for their party and what happened,was in the swing districts problematic,Republican candidates including Lauren,bobert Joe Kent in Washington state Beau,Heinz in North Carolina they ended up,costing Republicans what looked like it,it would be an easy majority,and also Dave David uh they were,record-breaking number of lgbtq,candidates who win who won their midterm,races you've got 400 of these candidates,breaking the 2020 record and Oregon and,Massachusetts electing their first,lesbian Governors Gina kotec and more,Healy so that's that's a changing,cultural issue,that is and in addition there was an,openly gay Republican who was elected on,Long Island George Santos and so it's a,bit bipartisan one of the ways,Republicans were able to win a handful,of the seats they did was by nominating,candidates who didn't look or sound like,Donald Trump or didn't fit the typical,profile of the Republican Party,and just very briefly Mark Also let's,talk about some of the issues that maybe,didn't show up in exit polls but may,have had an impact,speaker Pelosi acknowledging to a,question from my friend Anna bash this,weekend that the violence the violence,against your husband Paul the week,before the election and the Republican,really cruel responses by Kelly Ward by,Donald Trump by others Glenn young,couldn't apolog

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Wasserman: Southern Atlanta Suburbs Helped Indicate Election Trends | Morning Joe | MSNBC

Wasserman: Southern Atlanta Suburbs Helped Indicate Election Trends | Morning Joe | MSNBC

dave wasserman um i tell you what last,night i,i was just keeping my head down,and trying to figure out what was going,on,and at one point you said i've seen,enough warnock wins and i thought my god,this guy is calling the no-hitter in the,bottom of the fourth inning like what's,he doing but,you certainly saw something uh earlier,than most,uh that showed the way this race was,breaking what did you see last night,what made the difference and uh how does,the ossoff race end up,well joe a lot of the focus throughout,the runoff has been on those northern,atlanta suburbs where,we talk about all those country club you,know suburbanites who,uh in initially some of them split their,tickets between,biden and and purdue uh that didn't,happen so much last time but what really,uh gave away what was going on last,night was the southern atlanta suburbs,which we spend less time talking about,but it was places like clayton county,and henry and newton and rockdale and,douglas counties where,we saw really strong performances for,for warnock relative to biden,and that's where that's that's where the,republicans just couldn't keep up,uh last time here's where i will,disagree with john though,is that uh donald trump has proven to be,one of the,you know the best things going on for,down ballot republicans,if you consider what happened in 2016,when republicans,you know maintained control of the house,and senate in,2020 when he was on the ballot,republicans picked up almost enough,seats to take back control of the house,it's when he's not on the ballot that,republicans suffer,clearly he drives out a group of,of kind of politically alienated uh,right leaning voters uh who,who would not ordinarily show up for a,uh you know a regular joe or jane,republican,in a midterm or off year election and,that's what we saw,uh last night was that there was about,10 to 15 percent,of the trump electorate that simply did,not feel compelled to vote without,trump on the ballot or without the faith,that their vote would actually,lead to to kind of a trump-ass,change and meanwhile on the democratic,side,african-american turnout was simply,phenomenal yeah that's the argument,you've heard by the way from trump,supporters which is the reason it looks,like both of the republicans are loose,trump wasn't at the top of the ballot of,course the flip side of that is that he,was in there subverting,the vote all the time and in fact,putting in jeopardy the chances of these,two senators,so let's talk about that coalition you,did call,both races last night we should say the,nbc decision desk has not yet called,that second race for john ossoff,what did you see early on what were,those trends and what kind of a,coalition now can we call,it in georgia that we may see going,forward we've heard for now,a generation the possibility of turning,georgia blue well it's happened in both,the presidential election,and it looks like in both senate,elections as well,well first off it was some extraordinary,performances for the democrats,in uh both the black belt of georgia the,uh the rural black turnout was was,really,very impressive compared to the white,turnout in those counties and that was,apparent pretty early on,but then it was it was the southern,atlanta suburbs i was talking about,now the danger long-term here for,republicans is that,these elections in georgia are starting,to look more like censuses,then races between you know two sets of,candidates,and it's looking like republicans are,beginning to become,outnumbered in georgia much in the same,way they're now badly outnumbered in,virginia,or colorado now of course georgia's not,anywhere near there yet but,it could be on its on its way and,demographically the biden coalition,is extremely dependent on african,americans,and suburban whites and georgia has both,of those,those demographics in spades whereas,trump,made in roads with hispanic voters in,the 2020 election,but there just aren't very many hispanic,voters in georgia to speak of,thanks for checking out msnbc on youtube,and make sure you subscribe to,stay up to date on the day's biggest,stories and you can click on any of the,videos around us to watch more for,morning joe,and msnbc thanks so much for watching

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What does the census data tell us about redistricting? (feat. Dave Wasserman)

What does the census data tell us about redistricting? (feat. Dave Wasserman)

welcome to the sea analysis podcast i'm,your host chaz nudicum the director of,sea analysis,today i am joined by the legendary dave,wasserman of the cook political report,at redistrict on twitter,um the census data just came out,and i thought you know if i wanted to,talk a little bit about,the new census data that has come out,and redistricting who better to bring on,than the man who was able to,to snatch up the redistrict at on,twitter himself,uh dave thank you so much for coming on,hey thanks chaz and uh you know no one,covers state legislative elections,on twitter like you do so,congratulations,thank you yeah i'm very i've been very,um,very patient waiting for this census,data i know you're you're really focused,on the congressional redistricting and,i'm just very excited to crank out the,state legislative forecast,um,and getting to look at especially what,some of these independent,commissions are going to be doing at the,state legislative level,um but yeah well let's let's get right,into it,um i want to start with,new york uh because new york was the,most interesting to me,obviously new york just barely lost,one of its congressional districts we,found that out earlier in the year,but was what was surprising to me,was the growth in new york city that,they had and the loss in the upstate so,is this,is when they redraw the lines and,democrats are i would say probably going,to gerrymander but is the district that,they're going to lose going to be in,upstate new york and do you think,i guess as well that they'll combine um,uh,like tenney with uh,um stefanik,well look new york is almost existential,to democrats prospects for holding the,majority,it is not only the potentially the,biggest weapon in democrats arsenal this,time it's potentially the biggest weapon,in the history of,modern gerrymandering for either party,i i believe democrats,could eliminate up to five of the eight,sitting republican districts,and,two republicans are leaving their seats,which helps a little bit but,the census was good news for democrats,across the country,it was especially good news for,democrats in illinois and new york which,are the two state two big states that,they really get to gerrymander the fact,that chicago and new york clocked in,new york city that is clocked in with,stronger than expected populations will,mean that more districts can be,allocated to,those cities and that makes it easier,for democrats to to,pack republicans into rural districts in,both those states,yeah and you're absolutely right i think,across the board when we're looking at,um you know just nationally the,population changes um but especially,again in new york uh and illinois,um but all together i think it is it,bodes very well for democrats at least,in the future,um but,it's interesting,because 2021 just has been a pretty good,year for,democrats when looking when it comes to,redistricting news um for example when,the senate before the census projections,came out um,arizona was supposed to get a district,and that probably would have been a,republican leading district rhode island,was supposed to lose the district,minnesota was supposed to lose the,district,texas was supposed to gain uh one more,district uh if i recall correctly uh in,florida as well,um and obviously republicans control,redistricting both those states and now,with these,the the census data i think it does bode,well for democrats so i think,they are,currently looking at,uh when it comes to redistricting,they're in a better position than where,people saw them,at the beginning of the year would you,say that's fair,maybe marginally i always,have thought that the conventional,wisdom about republicans having this,enormous enormous advantage,in redistricting a cycle is a bit off uh,first of all i think a lot of the,conversation about redistricting and,gerrymandering has been dominated by,by the progressive left it's exploded in,public consciousness as a topic in the,last 10 years,in part because democrats,have looked at,at the map,maps that republicans passed last time,and,believe that um you know it's it's,terribly unfair,and,so,a lot of what you'll read you know by,ari berman and mother jones for example,uh,whenever he,you know talks about the sky falling and,democrats are going to lose between 11,and 16 seats supposedly in four southern,states well look that's not pricing in,the advantage that democrats may have in,not only new york and illinois but some,commission states as well democrats are,pretty optimistic about the makeup of,the of the new michigan commission for,example they are,marginally optimistic about california,the fact of the matter in california is,that yes the state's losing a seat yes,that's likely to come from l.a county,but it could also draw a lot of,republicans,outside of la,inwards in a way that jeopardizes at,least one of those republican swing,seats so,you know you could end up with with,democrats performing a bit better in,redistricting than initial expectations,if

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Building a Diversified Real Estate Portfolio with Doug Arthur, President & CEO of SENTRE

Building a Diversified Real Estate Portfolio with Doug Arthur, President & CEO of SENTRE

foreign,welcome to real talk real estate,discussions with Andrew Kirsch in each,episode Andrew interviews industry,leaders we'll hear their real-time,opinions on today's market their,background and unique career highlights,and guidance for newcomers to the,industry you can find the show at,www.sclawkirch.com and on YouTube,LinkedIn Apple podcasts Spotify Google,podcasts and more,now here's the host of Real Talk and,Drew Kirsch,welcome to episode nine of real talk,well we're now in the middle of January,of 2023 the holidays are behind us,um we're in the middle conference using,so everything from Craft seed in Miami,to the Iron Man private Equity,Conference next week in Laguna to Alice,the hospitality conference later in,January and then NHC and then a bunch of,YPO conferences,uh you know this is the time where uh,people within the real estate industry,uh and I assume all Industries gather,and talk about the upcoming year and,hopefully uh the transactional uh stick,it will will open up,um haven't seen signs of it opening uh,but you know positive talk that that,there is momentum that uh later on in,2023 the transactional volume should,pick up significantly,uh in this episode of real talk we have,Doug Arthur uh the president and CEO of,century which is a real estate company,based in San Diego uh that focuses,across all asset classes,um from office to retail to Industrial,to multi-family they are also an,investor uh shareholder of a company,that owns and operates uh real estate in,Mexico uh it's a really interesting,conversation that I had with Doug and I,know you'll enjoy it,hey there,Doug Arthur my good friend president CEO,of century how you doing this afternoon,I'm doing great it's good to see you,Andrew,well thanks for being on real talk I,truly appreciate it first and foremost,uh where does this podcast find you,headquartered in downtown San Diego home,of the downtown San Diego so you must be,near uh uh the Padres facility that that,big Market,team who overpays for free agents while,me being in La we're just like that,little upstart minor league team that,tries to scratch and Claw our way,through a division where you know the,big bullies uh down south uh are trying,to just buy themselves World Series,I could say that ending your season this,year was one of the greatest moments of,2022.,that is just a just a stake through my,heart you cut me open I believe Dodge or,blue I know you you bleed Taco Bell,colors brown and yellow for the Padres,um you know we could do a whole podcast,on on the Padre Dodger rivalry which,usually is one way of you know the,Dodgers just beating up on the Padres,and we did during the regular season and,they got cocky and they were,overconfident and you don't you know uh,score when Runners are at third base uh,with less than two outs and lo and,behold you you lose three out of four,games,it happened,after the World Series it happened after,I guaranteed World Series by Dave,Roberts yeah yeah well I I saw you when,did I see you I think I saw you after,yeah after the Padres beat the Dodgers,and you were,relishing in that and and getting ready,to beat up on the Phillies and you know,the Phillies were that that upstart team,that I think we all,want to be,um,so maybe next original moves this off,season taking Trey Turner from the west,coast to the east coast big contract we,just signed a big contract yesterday for,a 30 year old who will be 41 at the end,of the contract so yes a lot of things,baseball but I know,the last thing on these contracts I love,um like my kids now are eight and six,and so when Mookie Betts was signed to a,I don't know 12 or 13-year contract I,said to my my daughter at the time who,may have been six or seven Mookie Betts,will be playing for the Dodgers unless,he got traded until until you or once,you become like,like 19 years old or something like that,then he's no longer a Dodger that's how,long this contracts were the thought of,of a player being on one team for like,double or triple your kid's life is um,is pretty crazy,it's it's incredible but uh this is the,new market longer more value per year no,trade Clauses,um and a lot of these teams are stepping,up to make it happen the Phillies,obviously the Dodgers the Mets the,Padres now small Market the big Market,in a couple years so right how Boris,said it we're no longer we're a one,sport town so we are punching above our,weight at this point at least as it,relates to baseball,oh I love it well let's talk about you,and San Diego and century and just tell,us about the company I know we could,talk about baseball all day but we we,both decided to be in the real estate,business so um so so tell our audience,you know what is Sentry,the century was founded in 1989 by uh,ex-travel Crow guys which is a story,that's pretty common across the uh the,universe that is the United States uh,guys that were you know building buying,operating office and Industrial,throughout San Diego County including,kind of the region of Otay Mesa a

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